No idea what the Prophet dots are on the example chart. The Fibo Price Level tool is for me the most simple and most accurate price targeting tool I know of together with a channel tool. I use Advanced GET's Gann Box â boxed Gann angles â not based on Gann theory but as a trendline tool. 'Reading the data' â ie the relationship of the fibo levels and Gann Angles (in my case) with the price is of course the $64M question. I believe there's a major difference between those who are visually oriented â technical/geometric analysis and those who are quantitatively oriented so 'the other' 'doesn't make sense' based on orientation, tho both orientations are legitimate and produce profitable trades.
So when the Market tops or bottoms which retracement percentage will occur? If you can't give a specific response then you have made my point. Your answer will be a guess based on a variety of retracement levels. And rarely does a retracement hit an exact point anyway. I'm not saying you can't be a profitable trader using that stuff, I'm sayng you can be more profitable and more consistent NOT using it and figuring it out for yourself.
Im not trying to be cute but the percentage will occurr at the point of support or resistance. alot of times it will be at the 50% level (which is not a fib number anyway). I dont often buy or sell there, but there is no doubt the market reacts there often despite the absence of some other s/r price. and dont get me wrong, aside from a few fib points i have found recently to be very tradable, i have never referenced anything but pure price s/r. what turned my head was just opposite of your statement; pick any chart in any market and the record is pretty clear certain fib points hit regularly rather than rarely, alot of times on the exact point. I might add that i have strip'd away all the elliot stuff-been there done that. and i dont go along with alot of the past wisdoms associated with fibs and how to trade them. There are no guantees. I would probably pit my forcasting abilities with the best of them but i learned a long time ago - the market can do anything at any time. I usually position into the reaction in the direction of the trend and take a shot at it. the fibs get me in and get me out. If i am wrong, the market is quick to let me knowt. when im on the right side i just manage the trade thru the extensions. now, in the same spirit, i would ask where you would buy or sell when the market tops or bottoms. im all for letting people figure it out for themselves but lets hear a bit more about what you are suggesting here.
I agree with a lot of what you said. As I said earlier as well that every Method has a certain percentage of highly profitable traders using it. For me, I look for shear consistency of occurances (actions) that happen with the greatest frequency. I did not say patterns. There are actions that occur at every top or bottom in the Market to telegraph reversals. One must look for them undersanding first how to read a top or bottom. That sounds stupid but most traders don't know which top or Bottom is THE top or bottom and not just noise. That is the key to reading price. The ability to learn it is there but you won't find it in any book. That is because it has to be seen in real-time and is impossible to calculate. This is why I say that Fibs are ok but to inconsistent for me.
Hey JackFlash... I think the fib sequence goes... 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, etc... 1. So to derive a fib level i take a number from the sequece and divide by the next number above it... 2. 1/1 = 100% (as in a retrace to the exact starting point is a full fib retrace) 3. 1/2 = 50% or a halfway retrace 4. 2/3 = 66% or two-thirds retrace 5. 3/5 = 60% retrace 6. 5/8 = 62% retrace and from then on the result for any division equals about .618 (which then is symbolic as an average of the whole series) so, i think, <b><font size = 3>50% is a fib point</b></font> but since its not the usual .618 fib point which defines the series it doesn't seem to be although Gann (i not a fan of) and other math traders loved that 50% level... so i have always considered the 50% pt a fib point and use it as such but no biggy.... just a thought or two... cj... __________________ HAVE STOP - WILL TRADE If You Have The Vision We Have The Code
Here is a statement that perfectly clarifies why Fib & Gann are so inconsistent. I THINK instead of I KNOW! Successful interpretation of price action comes from KNOWING not THINKING.
Well, i used the words 'I think' for two reasons - one, so as to not raise the least 'hackles' on the person whose post i was replying too... there are - <h2><b> i think</b></h2> - too many posts in the ET database that are upsetting to many so i try not to add to that... and two - Since I majored in Science and am aware of Godel's Theorem i am careful of not stating absolutes... <i>"In 1931, the Czech-born mathematician Kurt Gödel demonstrated that within any given branch of mathematics, there would always be some propositions that couldn't be proven either true or false using the rules and axioms ... of that mathematical branch itself. You might be able to prove every conceivable statement about numbers within a system by going outside the system in order to come up with new rules and axioms, but by doing so you'll only create a larger system with its own unprovable statements. The implication is that all logical system of any complexity are, by definition, incomplete; each of them contains, at any given time, more true statements than it can possibly prove according to its own defining set of rules."</i> http://www.miskatonic.org/godel.html Also, <B><h4> 'I THINK'</H4></B> almost all the great / best traders trade a high probability system based on positive expectancy with correct postion sizing mixed in... Trading based on certainty has introduced many to the poor house... :eek: justa my 2 cents or 1.25 cents after adjusted for cost of living... cj... __________________ HAVE STOP - WILL TRADE If You Have The Vision We Have The Code
Charlie Dow: "A successful trader must, "emphatically know" the direction of the Market at the moment he places a trade." "Losers though should come from the Market changing direction due to consolidation or reversing trend not from a trader not knowing the direction the Market is going . . . " ??? "emphatically know" but, not know ? "There are actions that occur at every top or bottom in the Market to telegraph reversals. One must look for them undersanding first how to read a top or bottom. . . . . . . impossible to calculate." "telegraph" but, "impossible to calculate" but, "emphatically know" ??? Traders emphatically believe they are trading the Market direction correctly.
First, there is no reason to shout. If you have been reading ET threads for any length of time you should know it is rude and ignorant. Second, good for good old Godel. My statement has nothing to to do with Math or the rants of someone 74 years ago. Thank God technology has progressed a wee bit in that time frame. I just wish educated individuals would stop quoting situation irrelevant dead people. And third your statement, "Trading based on certainty has introduced many to the poor house", is verifiably wrong. Show me a system that has a win rate of 80% or greater and is objective based. Personally, that is the only type of trading I would even closely consider as being based in certainty. I do not know your background or age so I will chalk up your statements to practical inexperience (newbie) until I am told different.
I apologize if I wasn't clear enough. WALLACE WROTE: "Losers though should come from the Market changing direction due to consolidation or reversing trend not from a trader not knowing the direction the Market is going . . . " ??? "emphatically know" but, not know ? If you enter a long trade, the expectation isn't for the Market to go down and vice versa. This is what I meant when I said one "Must" know the direction of price the moment they enter the trade. If after entering a trade the Market signals a reversal or consolidation, a trader must know how to immediately recognize that signal to exit his trade with a slight profit or as little loss as possible. That is not a contradiction, that is common sense. WALLACE WROTE: "There are actions that occur at every top or bottom in the Market to telegraph reversals. One must look for them understanding first how to read a top or bottom. . . . . . . impossible to calculate." "telegraph" but, "impossible to calculate" but, "emphatically know" ??? The actions that occur at every top or bottom to telegraph reversals are based in price and visual, they are not calculated. They are fixed points distinguishable in real-time. Since they are fixed points that are visual and seen in real-time, they would be seen as you would see the nose on your face in a mirror. Conclusion: you emphatically know you have a nose and it is yours. WALLACE WROTE: Traders emphatically believe they are trading the Market direction correctly. First, Traders MUST believe they are trading in the Market direction correctly to be able to have a psychological advantage over themselves. Traders that trade a system or method that gives them a greater than average consistency rate, have patience and a tight grasp on money management, will always have an advantage over those that don't trade without those tools.