Hi fader, first of all let me thank you for your post, indeed appreciated. BY "bullet" I just want to state "trade", meaning that I have some opportunities to get a better effective cost for my trading. In the cad/jpy case I am more than happy with current entry price, but in the current JPY weak scenario one must be ready to act at anytime. As for the Prime Minister of Japan Story (thank you for raising the subject out), well I think that they are just doing the usual game of opening their mouth whenever they please, but I think that the market is no longer influenced by those comments (unless they have a reaction in terms of market intervention by the BOJ) and so they just vanish in the air quickly. Regarding my strategy, I look for good trading opportunities and look if they have a good risk/reward ratio. I do not have a time horizon when placing a trade, but rather a clear stop-loss or profit target point. I base my decision purely on technical analysis, with indicators and oscillators that I have taylor-made according to my own needs. The USD/JPY current case is rather an exceptional case that I am having at the moment, not unique, but rather surprising. I have just had 3 times a situation like this before, being a gbp/usd trade the longest I have ever held, for 49 sessions (closed with tiny gains on that one). I basically look for safe triggers (in time and price) that are not going to cause me much trouble even if I am in the wrong direction at first. However, I have more than clear when to exit and so if my indicators turn I will just have to close and re-start. The situation also makes trading other pairs rather different, since as you may have seen I am focusing on same counter-currency pairs (JPY denominated) and the only purpose as I said is to get better effective entry price. When this trade is over, normal market trading, with an extense variety of pairs being traded, should be the name of my game yet again. Patience is the name of the game at this point. In short, this is what I do in the currency markets, hope that was clear for you... feel free to contact me if you have any comments or questions, will be happy to chat with you. Happy trading to everyone. David.
hi David - thanks for discussing your approach, it is interesting to learn what you do and it makes sense - looking at the action in the euro post-fed minutes today, it seems that if it breaks back through this resistance, there may be a bit of a reversal move in it and in the dollar index in general which, if it happens, perhaps will help to lift the yen a bit higher too - although it seems any bounce in the yen would likely retest back down as the trend down has been strong - so i am guessing you will probably decide to exit on any larger bounce - let's see how this develops - all the best.
hi everyone, back after 5 days of rest, really enjoyed them and feel ready to tackle this the last part of this 2005. Quick update on my trades executed today: 1. Sold Cad/Jpy out of a sell lilmit order @ 102.50. ==> That leaves the situation: 2x Cad/jpy SOLD @ 101.93 average, target 96, stop above 103. ** Still 1 lot available on this one. *** My USD/JPY portfolio remains intact with 5 X 117.02 SOLD. My stop on this one is 122 and target is open. I will only take this one out and re-start with my diversified portfolio once the market proves me completely wrong or pays what it has to .... manipulation on the pair can't go on forever ... Happy trading to everyone. David.
David, I do see that you continue to stack your losses on USDJPY. However, I am glad that you have come to terms with your losses. Remember to keep it. 122 stop. Have you heard the story of the teacher who had 10 years experience but wasn't hired for the job? The reason why she wasn't hired was because her interviewer felt that she had 1 year experience 10 times over. By the way, remember that long USDCHF from 1.2788 that I had this month? I sold all of it at 1.3220. The trend is Deptrai's friend.
Hi everybody! did you miss me? Well I guess not )) but anyway it is just great to be back now that (FINALLY!!) the usd/jpy stubborn trades have come to an end. As you might recall, I had the usd/jpy shorts 5 X 117.01, they have been all squared today at 117.05, that makes a total loss of -20 pips. That was the official trade, ie, the one that I was able to put in the demo account. Since the platform I am suing for the demo does not allow to trade cad/jpy, and also did not allow me to trade gbp/jpy because of excess of margin (what a beautiful demo I opened! LOL), those 2 multi-shorts that were also closed with nice profit did not compute for the demo show. All in all, the demo shows a healthy <b>$108,264 equity balance</b> (showing +850pip gain, far from the real +2,807 indeed achieved) before moving to another brokerage firm where all pairs will be able to be traded. Full statement can be seen in the site. Therefore, I am going to start (right from today) the re-newed demo, the results of which will be an aggregate to the existent one, being able to trade the full pairs and also being able to show you full statements with all pairs traded. My intention is to be as accurate as possible in timing when posting trades, but just excuse me if there is a bit of delay as I am now going to be very busy with accounts and all that stuff, you know.... Current Status: FLAT HAPPY TRADING TO EVERYONE. David.
Hi, thank you for your reply. You are right indeed, but the trades were based on JPY denominated pairs, and I did not want (and anyway platform did not leave me with enough amrgin to do so) to mess up with other pairs other than strictly JPY denominated ones. Anyway, the positioning was made clear here and just as you can see today the JPy keeps on gaining fround, almost 800 pips in 3 sessions against the GBP and around 500 against the CAD. I have to reiterate that cad/jpy (IMHO) will see 96 and eventually 93 in the mid-to-long term, and that the moves that we saw until last week were clearly manipulation/speculation-driven moves, taking people out of their positions, making the market one-sided, to, in the end, catch as many traders wrong-footed as possible. And that is what I am just seeing since yesterday early afternoon european time. Happy trading to you. David.