From 2008: So, here we would expect stock prices to be generally lower going into 2009. My cycle work or DTFBarometer shows a confirming low in 2009 coinciding with Bennerâs sequence. Overall 2008 should be a down year for the stock market. The dominant cycles (36-yr, 10-yr, 41-month & 24-months) are all in downward phases of their movements, which should cause all declines to be much sharper due to the combined weight or influence of these cycles. We have already declined 19% from the highs of October 2007 and the original cyclic model indicates that the end of the year should be around 1250 to 1240 price levels on the S&P500. Mass Pressure indicates a similar bearish outlook but only ending down only 2% or so. Both Spectral Analysis and my original cycle work presented in Wheels Within Wheels forecast a similar downward trend or market curve. The economy is due to reach its lowest point in the 18.6-yr cycle around December 2008. From here it is anticipated to begin improving back to normal conditions into July 2013
From 2010: The basic forecast for the stock market in 2010 is lackluster at best. The market may finish the year in positive territory, but currently would be more inclined to forecast a flat to negative market. The chart on the following page is very similar to the 100-year pattern shown (1909-1910) on the prior page and is also indicating a steadily declining market from Fall 2009 (Sept-Nov) into the season of Fall 2010 (Sept-Nov). Thus far, all indications are basically saying that the market is cyclically weak and both cycles and periodicity patterns indicate that the best buying opportunity for 2010 does not occur until very late in the season, most likely not until October or November. The above cycles and composite wave are also indicating the likelihood of a âDouble Dipâ recession going into the year 2012 This model is calling for lower lows and lower highs for nearly the entire year, which again supports the âlacklusterâ theme discussed in the beginning of this report. According to this model, the year finishes strong with a powerful December rally that lasts into February 2011 No. 10 is a bear year. A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts. See 1910, 1920, 1930. Note how well this is matching our current forecast! We are anticipating declines from Oct/Nov 2009 into Jan/Feb 2010, followed by a short rally into March and steady declines into at September/October 2010 Due to the current phasing of the 24-month and 41-month cycles, the exit point or holding period is to liquidate holdings in June 2011 anticipating a decline into October 2012.