14oct2014 PREP Current market is in a downtrend still. We started a down channel back on the 9th. Currently, we are at the upper extreme of this channel. According to AMT price will probably revert back to the mean or value area if traders are still finding value at drastically lower prices. Traders could however seek new higher value which is something that I'm looking for. I still imaging price coming back to the 09 trend channel, and at least hitting the upper extreme around 3730 sometime in the next week or two. Probably week. I'm still open to longs, but traders would have to show their demand of that. All overnight ranges have been broken. After a low yesterday at 3792, price rallied back up. I'd imagine a retest of that low and then see how traders react there. Price tried to make a lower low premarket afterhours, but failed to do so, with a possible triangle setting up on the 60. Probably to tank to the lower extreme. SIM this morning. Should be fun.
This morning was fun. Good learning experiment. I took 11 trades. They were good trades. I won't analyze each and every one but I will talk about the things that I could do to avoid the trades I shouldn't have taken, and to take the ones that I should have taken. Attached is the chart. 11 trades total. Today's statistics at the bottom. I believe today marks almost two weeks of consistent profitability. I've been SIM trading, and when I can't SIM trade, I do a bar by bar replay. Rules still aren't on paper, but they are very strict and in my head. They will get on paper. With this consistent profitability is it time to go live? I might try to take at least one live trade this thursday. It might be time to tackle new fears with real money. Trade #1. Premarket. Sold the extreme of a range especially because I felt today was going down and I was willing to hold for NYC open. Price fluctuated, and failed to reach the lower extreme signaling demand. I exited for a small profit. Trade #2-5#: Many small losses. Full stops hit, but my stops a only a few ticks. Immediately after the open, I was down about 5 or 6 points. Not a good feeling. I decided, no one is forcing me to trade. I can sit here and wait for the prime trade that I know has a higher probability of success. On top of that, all of the stops immediately signaled some time of chop or range. I should not have had trades 4 and 5. To avoid these, after two hit stops, market conditions, and/or myself need to be reassessed. I must learn this. Trade 6. Stop hit. Immediate re-enter on 7. Trade 7: covered on a line break. signaling a shift in demand. With 1 lot, was ready to assume the continuation instead of a reversal. Was very right. If I wasn't, I could always go the other way. I'm losing count of my trades. Maybe I'm on 8 or 9 now. Trade 8. Immediate re-enter. 20 points. All in all great morning. Traded too much at the open. I'm keeping my stops small. I need to consider and "backtest" more of a dynamic stop. However, with a small account, I'd prefer to exit at this point and reassess. I'm holding the winners well I feel. I'm cutting those losers very fast. This has been leading to very profitable days, even trading only one lot. I can see how trading at least 2 lots helps a lot of the fear of grabbing some profit. On the large 20 point move, I would have exited one for profit letting the other ride a little bit. This other one would have still been in the green, but just not as much as lot # 1. Stats. Profit - 465$ or 23.25 points Avg win - 138 Avg Loser - 37.5 P:L - 3.68:1 Win rate today - 46%. Even with a terrible win rate but having those winners run, really can make a day profitable. Win rate should be closer to 63% if I stopped for a little after all of those stop outs. Oh well. I'm considering a live trade here soon. Thanks for watching.
16OCTprep Again, I've been stating price will reach 09 trend channel. It did yesterday. I was not able to trade yesterday with work. The downtrend channel on the hourly that began 10/9 actually broke. However, it broke sideways, without any real conviction. Price eventually reverted to the channel mean yesterday at 1400. We are weding again on the hourly. Now that we are at the channel extreme on the 09 up channel, price could find value at that mean around 3420. So much demand at this price came in around april 14, this is the next spot where price might find value. It's been found there before. Price actually hinger there for a week or two before exploding up. Price made a new low yesterday, premarket around 4 am. People are still not buying at these prices. Sellers are having to sell lower and lower. I'd imaging with this many people are trying to sell at the best possible price, and might continue to lower there prices. We are in a very wide range here premarket. Range is around 3688 and 3722. Pretty wide, 34 points, with a 3706 midpoint. Traders are temporarily finding value at this point. At 930, price will probably continue wedging according to the hourly, and I'm looking for price to head north for 50 points or so at 3750. However, in an effort to curb all bias, if price breaks the lower end of range at 3688, I'll head south too... Happy trading! Also, I might try LIVE. AHH. I'll let you know after the fact. No pressure.
Full report due tonight. I went live today. I have never experienced such euphoria, loss, anger, happiness, and revenge, all in one day. I'm glad I popped the "going-live" cherry. There has got to be some good stories of people going "live". Feel free to roast, ream, mock, encourage, entertain one's self, etc... I considered not posting. However, this journal is for me. I need to understand what happened today, and I also need to analyze my charts and learn how to avoid the trades I should not have taken, and learn how to take the trades I missed. AHHH.
Below the uncensored trades list for today. I went live today and learned many things. As mentioned above I learned first hand what these "emotions" you have all been talking about really mean. I have not felt these emotions in SIM anymore, and that's why I thought it's time to begin my journey into live "emotions". And boy did I have those stupid mother effing son's of bitches all day long. Anybody else every feel completely schizo when they went live? It's very hard following your system live. I learned in SIM. Real money on the line is a completely new ball game. I'm glad I did this...I think... I also learned a few new rules I have to add to my system which would have avoided some trades I took. Obviously, with my free flowing "emotions", not under check, I didn't follow "all" of my rules. I know, thanks. As stated previously, I didn't want to write this here. But it's good. It's humiliating, and it's time to learn. Or quit. I want to learn. I want to know what to watch out for, and it seems I really need to pay attention to myself for a little bit. I heard of an exercise where you record your thoughts on taking a trade...and replay the recording at day's end. I might do that if this continues to be a problem. Trade #1: 5.75 points. Made perfect sense, was a perfect trade, however I exited to early. Fear of losing profits drove that. There was no line break according to my rules, and no reason to cover. This trade was put on according to plan also because price was already at brand new lows. Also, the market open FAILED to make or even test new lost in a couple bars, and it looked like LOLR was up. It was. Demand at these prices was in. Trade #2: 4.25 points. I entered again on a pullback. I entered again, which I should have already been in...still...because the move was still strong and set up was nice. Great move, exited according to plan because of the line break. Trade #3: -2.5 points. This trade should have never been a long. This is not according to plan, and I believe I was very euphoric at this point. STOP. Honestly? I was euphoric. I just made $200 in 10 minutes. I've never done that before. I work retail at a dead end job, and I have a degree. I'm already a loser. But, I just made 200 dollars in 10 minutes? WOW. Maybe there is something to this trading if one really wants to devote time, effort, consistency, and sweat into this business. I'm AMAZING! F*** YOU market! And so it began... One loss. No big deal. Trust my system right? Well, it seems I didn't write any rules for euphoric and vengeful emotions. I think I need some. These emotions led me into giving my money back. Wait though...trust the system...go! Trade #4: Break Even(I missed a nice one. Trade three should have been one bar later and a short...according to plan) Good trade. It immediately went into my favor and came back. It happens. Scratch it and move on. I was ok with this. Although, I was still very euphoric and the market just "had to give me more". Right? I mean, COME ON! Trade #5: -2.5 points. Price action was clearly undecided here. It dropped a little bit, but the retrace was extremely large. Trade should not have been placed. Keep up people. It was such an emotional day, I'm struggling to recall what I was seeing and feeling when trades were placed. Trade #6: 2 points. I really didn't want to give away my profit. Fear dictated this play. It was entered according to plan, but it was managed according to my fears. Price came back on me a little bit. It never even reached break even however, and I still exited. I'm sad at myself today. This trade could have easily made 4 if not 6 points. Trade #7: -1.75points. Failing at trade 6's management, led directly in to trade 7's failure. It is absolutely amazing, how my behavior of a trade influences the rest. I cannot comprehend how the mind connects these things. WOW. At least I recognize that I've had 2 trades today LIVE, that are exited NOT ACCORDING TO PLAN. Will he stick to his plan at least? Good question. We'll see very soon. AND THE PAIN BEGINS. After failing at trade's 6 and 7, and after giving back many of the points I earned on the first two trades, I began to get angry. I felt angry because I deserved more. The market needs to pay me back. These are bad emotions. I have to learn to be neutral and unbiased. Every outcome is random. My testing has showing certain probabilities over time however. Moving on...the pain... Trade 7.5: MISSED TRADE: I missed this one because I was angry and not paying attention. I was hitting the desk I think. But there in my plan, if executed well was that monster climb at 1021. Perfect retrace for it too. Line break. Retrace. BOOM. missed. Why? Because I was angry. I'm not going to sit here and justify why I was right in every one of my trades. I won't. I can't. I was wrong. The sooner I realize it the sooner I learn. I'm learning now. THE PAIN Trade 8 -2.25 points: Wanted some of that move I missed. FAIL. Trade #9: -1.25 points: I SAID I WANTED SOME OF THAT MOVE. FAIL. Trade #10: -2.75 points: SHIT. I'm following my system!?! Or am I? Where am I again? Is this LIVE? BREAK TIME> I waited. After this shit it clearly must be CHOP zone, and I clearly don't have a handle on whose buying, selling, or giving away their wheaties. MORE PAIN Price is clearly in a range, and I'm clearly trying to play it against my rules. Trade #11: -1.25 points: Trade #12: Oh look. I managed a Break Even. Fail. Trade #13: -3 points: This is where I lost it, and my day went south. I had a lot of thinking to do. ANALYSIS and SUMMARY You can do the statistics if you want. It's shit and awful. If I had to analyze today's session and choose three main take aways as I learn to trade live, they would be: 1. Constantly be aware of one's opinion of the market, including one's emotion towards it. Rules should be made for euphoria and for revenge/anger. In other words, I shouldn't trade. 2. Make a specific daily stop loss in reference to my account size. Absolutely no play's after hit, because apparently somethings off. See number 1. 3. Follow the god-damn fucking written and tested plan next to your fucking computer you shit fuck. Today was brutal. Up 10 or 11 points then down 11 points. From euphoria to total depravity. Oh how will I ever survive.... WORK all day tomorrow, I'll be back Saturday to replay friday, and I'll prep SUnday for next week, because I plan on continuing this live journey starting monday of next week. 10/20 I believe. riba derchy(sp?)
Welcome to the suck ============== As for recording your session Write your thoughts (journaling - every day (weekends/ downtime included) - is a very good idea) Record your thoughts on voice recorder Use camtasia or similar to video record =========== The only rule that will work for emotions is; Step away from the platform and regain composure before returning And (prior to stepping away) If in a trade - either exit immediately..., or place a stop loss Then get the hell away and recompose ====================== Ultimately (to resolve) You’ll find.., you must come to terms…, accept..., and be completely at peace – with each of your emotions Iow – get to know and become best friends with them And yeah I realize how pussy-fied it sounds for one guy to be saying this to another guy But…, believe you me….. You cannot overcome them You cannot ignore them You cannot will them away You cannot cease having them Nor can you beat them out of you – no matter how hard you hit yourself None of this shit works (I know) ============= None of what you experience today is unique…, or insurmountable It’s just going to take internal work to resolve And know…, the more you fight this / refuse to accept it The more work it will take.., and the harder that work will be (literally - you can make it impossible for you to succeed) Be really nice if I could tell you to do A.., B…, then C – then all your woes would be resolved Well I can’t – nor can anyone…, we are all unique…, and we all have different crap to resolve before being truly at peace Again - welcome to the suck ================== I’ve always said trading is 3 to 5% technical skill…, 95 to 97% mental I’m certain before today… you would have disagreed And ain’t it amazing…, how shit goes flyin out the window – once the first shot is fired (trade placed with real $) ================ View this as one…, of many…, stepping stones – that need traversed – before trading becomes second nature And by second nature I don’t mean easy – the only easy day trading – well.., there aren’t any But at some point trading can become a natural part (extension) of one’s self Have questions – ask Successful Journey Sir RN
Been having the same issue trading dax, its to fast and the chop is to many pts. Its been a Im in, im up 12pips, this could go more, im at BE at in instant and SL is hit, did that 3times in a row yesterday very annoying and costly, increased SL to 15 and got back to in profit on the day. Got to adapt to the market conditions, ebola and ISIS news are creating huge swings. Keep going learn from above, and trade YM its much easier, or DAX if you can.
Great info RN, thanks for the feedback. I consistently journal next to my monitor with my thoughts and feelings. It's not as in-depth as a recording might be. Your advice for learning to accept these emotions and be "at peace" with them makes perfect sense to me. The emotion's will exist, but let them exist. Almost embrace them, allowing them to play out...personally, not in trading. Pussyfied. LOL. Welcome to the suck seems very appropriate, and on another level reminds me these exist for all traders. I'll be trading live all next week, so this should be fun. The journey is completely different when introducing real money. I didn't think it would be this drastic emotionally. Weird really. Thanks again for welcome into suck, smacks