Just for the opposite counter point.... I'm better off not waiting for a perfect setups reasons being..... Its a perfect setup, its losing, move the SL it can't do that, move it again. Wow my account is gone. You miss too many good runs. You waste too much time, just looking at a screen for no profit chance. Bored You get emotional over missed trades then trade stupidly. The shotgun approach........ See a setup, click click, trade the setup, perfection is sadly an illusion. Many trades, good odds of being in for big runners, go your way make 10 go against lose 2 It creates an its a game mindset, removes a lot of the stress of being right and ego More trades should add upto more money or less time or 50/50 If the trade looks poor, dont beat yourself up and watch it hit the SL just kill it early. Its as much about managing the trade as taking the setup. Yes I am a shotgun guy, thankfull no comms for me just a 1pt spread on the dax, so its easy to cover the cost, dont reaaly see it even, yesterday 11 trades, 1 BE, 3 losers, 7 profitable, $140 spread cost approx, closed up +$630 traded maybe 90mins went out. Most on here think more trades is bad cause they will lose more, cause there trading negatively its not cause there over trading, just not good traders yet. Also most traders are losing, cause we are taught how to lose, by others who are losing but don't want to admit to it on forums, who was taught by another loser and the cycle continues, and the city boys get there 1mil bonuses from retails traders pockets, so its all good Go your own way, don't become a average retail trader the system is setup to take there cash and run, be different break the mold. They basically try to push everyone to long term H4 crap, with that you dont lose enough to quit, you just keep topping the account up monthly for ever, intradayers either blow the account and walk away or become rich they dont like us, over all we take there cash. Less trades, less work, less comms, more profit is the dream, sadly the longer you hold the more it comes down to random chance and the closer it gets to being a 50/50 game, it only appears easier dont believe the hype. I keep falling for above and my account suffers every time, intraday scalper ( not full 1pt and out ) is where its at, its hard work, accept it and get rich quickly then retire Thats a long 1 sorry!
May I amiably Counter some things you mention in your Counterpoint? And congratulations on your very nice gains and % winning trades! One has to crawl before they walk- and walk before they run- and there will be plenty of skinned knees along the way. One learns lessons after repeated falls when initially learning to ride a bike- and eventually can gain skills-as one gets familiar- I see you feel strongly on the subject- If you are able to apply a shotgun approach successfully, and with consistency- I suspect it is because you now- after years of trading- can instinctively react if a trade is not performing as you want- You are disciplined in cutting the trade-taking the loss and entering on your next valid signal without hesitation- because you know it could be the next winning trade- and none of us know when that will occur-If we wait on the "signal" to enter- the trade is almost over- I also expect you have a "FEEL " for the market environment and intuitively sense that today might be the day to go shotgunning- or to step aside- Gaining thaT degree of understanding likely takes considerable amounts of time in the market to attain. I think one needs (Initiate) to learn to target shoot first- and gradually and methodically make small refinements as one's shooting improves and they gain experience- Maybe graduate to hunting with a pistol or shotgun after substantial time on the range and one has developed their reaction time-- JMO. I totally agree with you- why many people fail - in the beginning of your post: " Its a perfect setup, its losing, move the SL it can't do that, move it again. Wow my account is gone." I know personally some traders on my time frame that are now long term investors- not by choice but due to lack of discipline, lack of having a money management plan where Risk was evaluated and stops were not set or were loosened on the mistaken belief that Price would come back eventually- I have a friend that is holding 5 positions from a year + earlier- patiently waiting..... I also agree- that the ideal lower risk entry is one viewed on the faster chart- regardless of one's time frame. There will be an earlier entry signal, more failed trades at a lower loss . Have to take the next qualified entry again. This is a tactic that I only started to employ in the last year or so- One can use a trend line, ema,sma to have a visual reference- and take an entry only when price is qualified by a reference of what has preceded - This assists me- I don't have to catch the very start to gain if it turns into a trend- Indeed, In what I trade- stocks, ETFs- 1st reversals often do not succeed- Have to take the next- The 'qualified' faster time frame trend offers a well defined Risk where the assumption for the trade has failed- and the stop is hit- I expect this is true across all time frames- This is just my assumption . This works best if price is trending- and does not work well in consolidation ranges/ chop. On very fast time frames- actual trend direction may not be as significant influence as it is on higher time frames? 15 min-10 min-5 min-3 min-1 min? If one traded only a few instruments, he could make that determination with some study to see if it had any relevance in his day trading by the 1 or 5 or 15....? My simple opinion is that any trader starting out initially is likely more inclined To want to be a shotgunner- If success could be achieved by taking every entry - HFT style- that would be giving that trader an edge- For them to start off as a shotgunner-- which may work initially in a specific chart- but will not provide the trader initiate with the skills to try to learn to be that sharpshooter with scope waiting patiently and learning to recognize- what are for him- his few best set ups and wasting as few bullets as possible without shooting at everything that comes his way. You may have success with that- but you have a great deal of time spent in the woods-and Danial Boone experience Ideally, The initiate becomes a more tactical trader- gains experience and longevity-learns about Risk and probabilities that today's market is different from tomorrow- and then can determine if he can succeed better with a different gun- different target- He indeed may eventually choose a shotgun approach with a pack of hounds as his desired method- but he needs to try to acquire those skills of precision- I can see JS becoming that quality shooter- Fun analogy- And just My opinion as to how someone starting out should proceed- I indeed do a completely different kind of trading/investing- but I think there are some very sound principles that can be applied across all methods- That may be a simplistic & idealistic view on my part- . Wasn't there a TV show once- Point- Counterpoint? Nice to exchange differing ideas civily- SD PS - I will start a thread at some point here on ET to enable me to get more disciplined and committed.A different approach entirely to the markets and time frame- .I will reply to this post with a present chart- and a different methodolgy view-
I won't post another chart here- Hope this works -) but I'll comment here periodically- Nice civil thread- good positive & constructive inputs wanting to see JS as a novice trader succeed- It brings out the best in all of us- The chart i am posting here is not a suggestion that any of you- or JS apply- in your trading- It illustrates the different perspective I hold as an EOD swing trader- I have learned quite a bit from some posts on ET- I'm simply slow in making changes. The chart is-in fact-my "best" and still active trade this year- But it's an ideal example of staying with a trend longer than you think a trend should last- Posting it here is giving an example of allowing a trend to run it's course- You don't enter at the bottom- You don't get out at the top- You try to get the largest chunk of the meat in the middle of the trade when it is presented on occaision. SD I'll try the IMG link:
Just because a baby has to crawl before he walks doesn't mean you have to trade slowly, if trading Slower TF's doesn't work then crawling isn't going to work. I'm good, then I get tired / emotional and slip into the moving SL averaging down and blow huge chunks, this is my main issue when I'm good I'm GOOD, when I'm bad I'm very very BAD!! but working on it. I've tried being a sharpshooter, no plan of battle survives the first shot, or the first tick of movement in trading, the reason you entered is generally valid for seconds maybe minutes if your lucky. Obviously I have preferable market conditions and prefered setups, market conditions change 4 - 5 months ago I doubled the account without a loss pretty much, then different conditions = death pretty much, you learn a setup and over the years I've learn 100's sooner or later every 1 of them has stopped. These days, it's a market is going up, go long, it keeps going I make 30 say, it stops and reverses on me I lose 10, most of the time it keeps going KISS!!
Pretty similar to how I trade, SMA's momentum following, same rules apply H1 or M1 kinda, difference is we'll risk the same amount have the same potential profit and we can do this 20x's per day rather than 1 or 2 weekly or whatever. Thats a perfect chart, don't see momentum that strong on a H1 chart generally, you got some weird chart method going on there ?? CURE ?? Ebola related Biotec ??
I do not normally trade leveraged ETF's- It is certainly exception to the rule - It is for me a smaller position size- lower Risk-greater volatility play that happened to work out in my favor this time- I have been burned the other way when taking these trades- but the overall environment was getting in - at an extreeme oversold condition- and the market coincided- i have been quite lucky recently- I bailed out on market weakness/stalling- caught a nice short using SDS- but that is playing the extremes as the "input " - bailed on 1st stall of uptrend bounce- because the prevailing trend rules- and caught it just right- One gets a certain sense of pride/satisfaction in "getting" a trade just right- $$$ may be inconsequential in terms of the satisfaction of doing it right- helps when one nails a top though- The chart is deceptive because it's a Renko chart- It ignores specific price action- illustrates what is the trend Only- Actually- it ignores the PA volatility extremes and cuts the chart down to the essence of what occurred in that period- Renko charts do not show Price action or gaps - Essentially ignore them as not material in the larger picture- If a trader reacts to volatile input- Renko smoothes the input- Don't get me wrong- I still use candlesticks- but this optional way of smoothing volatility gives a larger picture that ignores the price noise and focuses on the trend direction- For a more accurate & tradable reference- Renko charts should be viewed on a hi-lo setting on the faster time frame- It's a different way of viewing a smoothed price bar- ignores the extremes as not essential- defines the trend direction better- Yes, as an EOD trader- You live in a different universe than I - My Opportunities- are found in longer holding periods- Yes- you could potentially make much more in the intraday swings % wise...... Despite our time frames- and differences-I think we trade similarly- Cut the losses- take the valid signal to enter on a move in our direction- Take the loss if it comes- Faster entry signal- lower Risk Yes- you will likely have the opportunity to make much larger gains than I- It took me 4 months to gain 10% (You did in 1 day) and I hope to average the year at 20% goal. OK- Maybe 30% outside goal....LOL. Perhaps our major difference is that i am seeking a multi-day- week-month gain- Once i have a profitble position- If the trend is sustained higher- minor pause- I don't bail unless the stop is hit or it goes on for an extended period of time- Once I have a substantially profitable trade- i can not get nervous on a momentum pause unless it retraces- Trend and momentum is not all that common in trades- but it is a great opportunity to venture in and give it some room to occur as it develops- Ultimately, my end goal is to build confidence in this rather small trading account by being proactive- to where i can extend that to an investment account as an effective approach- Too much relies on the technicals . I also do not normally trade leveraged positions- conversely- I trade "safe" etf's with size and try to take advantage of minor pullbacks to sell higher and repurchase more on the pullback with "smooth' movers- I will not get rich doing this- but I hope to gradually increase the net return year over year with these dividend paying ETFs Example presently- DTN,, TDIV CURE was the exception and a minor position that happened to give a substantial reward for it's position size- i was able to take the additional Risk in this portion of the port because i had less volatile positions included- I like this approach- Greater Risk- lower position- Ventured into 2 stocks- due to a friend- AAPL- and BABA- both are momentum spec plays presently- Something of managing a diversified port - balancing Risk with Reward- Will see how it works out-- Let me respond to your prior post next
I recognize the frustration of having a working method go awry -we have all likely had this same experience- whether it's due to the personal /emotional issues or the market condition out of your control.- You know averaging down eventually is alosing proposition- take it out of the equation alltogether and don't entertain it agian- Trade based on the present set up and Risk as you see it - Don't trade when tired or emotional- be Objective-step away- step out a time frame .Or Two- You know this already- Likely better than I do. as far as one method wortking- and then failing to work- Yes- that will happen more frequently in your time frame- and requires the ability on your part to discover when that trend is occurring- I would think that you have to adapt quicker on your time frame than I do- I see the trends as gradual- You likely see them as more sharp reversals- I think the best thing would be to reduce your position size in times of uncertainity- Maybe step out on a time frame or two and analyze whether you are in a wider consolidation or still within a trend- Become the tactical trader and sharpshooter on the higher time frame- when that choppiness occurs- You will succeed when you nail the moments that a trend occurs- You will bleed when you jump in the middle of a chop/consolidation- Lower your risk- trade the extremes of the swings for the best reward/entries. Target your entry. Yes, conditions change- Your success is determined by how well you can reduce Risk when that does not favor you- and to increase Risk when it does. This usually happens at the wide swings- Look higher on the time frames- step up and view the really bigger picture. Yes- market conditions indeed change the overall environment- If you were able to double the account in one market environment- that favors you- know when that puts your trades in favor- that is your edge- Giving it back is painful- but we have all done that - ( I struggle with that myself) failed to adapt to a rapidly changing environment- market mood or swing- When we get defensive- we don't risk enough- When we feel we are on top of our game- we risk too much- Or perhaps we are too cautious- The key is to try to develop some consistency in our approach to the environment- The environment rules and changes -often daily on market emotion. Positioning ourselves to take advantage of swings in the market offers great contrarian advantage- On the recent market pullback, I actully didn't wait long to reenter-tactically- as the market had a sharp sell-off- Fortunately, the rebound was a sharp snap higher and the trades I made then were low risk and net profitable- Makes you feel you got it figured- but as you say- the next time will be different- The pullback & reentry will see a short bounce up and then drop lower-And Crap- I've lost money! I've been there, doine that- and want to find a methodology that stops giving gains back- I give to charity at home- don't need to take that approach in my trading! I want to gain consistently- give back less , and then gain more- Success is something that one can repeat-It is built on a solid foundation -perhaps fundamental- perhaps analytical and proven- or combination of all. Temporary extremes of success or failure are indeed extremes at both ends- One does not want to acquire overnight success- because it is fleeting and without substance- and will dissappear as easily- One wants to challenge one'sself- develop a consistency in a method and learn-over time- to believe in the method (s) or to refine it. Adapting to a changing market environment may prove when the method does not work well or fails- And it is time to step aside and evaluate- or adapt methods- One cannot be a "one-trick -Pony in trading and survive the swings over the short term- Stepping aside in times of turmoil in the markets is sound judgement- let the battle work itself out and then step back in- Become a trend trader-- or go to the sidelines in chop. When you analyze your trades- objectively- Have you printed them out? How did you know to continue to take the trades that made you a winner -despite the 3 losing trades- What gave you the confidence to enter again? If you can explain that- you have an edge- It was not simply random in the way you managed those trades- Perhaps the market was indeed in your favor at the time- Good- You exploited that condition. Can you repeat that again Monday? What has to happen-? It is said that we get what we want out of the markets and that only we hold ourselves back- It sounds like some kind of psychological mumbo-jumbo - but it's likely true- We get to a level and develop a certain comfort zone - Maybe we start a thread on ET -LOL! We plateau instead of pushing ourselves harder on the psyche end- or the analysis end of how effective our approach is- I've been writing this too late- Good luck in your ability to step back and adapt- If that is what is needed- OK- I started a thread on ET- http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/long-term-position-trading-primarily-etfs.287664/ I will add to it on occaision-as time and interest permits- focus is not day trading though- I think this will help me "step up" my game a notch though- SD
My son is giving me trading advice. He's a running back here in PA and they just won 1st playoff on the way to state. At the end of the game, to clench the title, he had a 65 yard carry for a touchdown. It was called back for holding. I asked him what he thought about this. How did you handle this? In your mind? Without stuttering, he said, "I let it go, and played my game." WOW! Maybe he should trade my capital? They won because of this attitude. His teams attitude continued to be positive as well. Food for thought? Small loss? Next! Wait your turn, wait until the ball is in your hands, and then execute with all of your skill you've acquired. -JS
Congrats to your son! Winning attitude-! " Wait your turn, wait until the ball is in your hands, and then execute with all of your skill you've acquired. " That also sounds like a winner's attitude-Good Luck! -JS[/quote]
Treat trading the same way, as a game, try to fet your daily score as high as you can, don 'tthink of it as money, removes the stress, stops you over thinking it. I think thats why i hit the wall at 10k omg its 10k i should start taking this seriously doh! Stay away from forums aswell, people will pull you around all over the place, add doubts and confusion. It's an easy game, market can only go 2ways after all