But if your trading off short term momentum, your not picking a bottom, your getting in when it's started going up already, how far it goes well that would be predicting and that's pointless.
Thanks TD. This is something I should reconsider. If so, I would need to make some rules around it, and define it better. I have had luck in the past with this move, but I always had a "chasing" feeling. I don't like that feeling because I end up making stupid mistakes.
I have the same feeling, learning to ignore, how many times have you sat and watched or worse still ut mive okay NQ 20pts or worse still called a top to have ut keep going against. Doesnt work in chop or atleast very few pts, look for slow movement that continues, fast spikes generally reverse just as fast.
I have been doing a lot of research into what signal I want to pursue as my one trading signal. I want to perfect it, move it to SIM and understanding everything around it. One thing I find OFTEN throughout PA, is a consistent demand line or supply line. Often, price immediately rejects, possibly retests it, then bounces off. Charts to follow tomorrow. I reviewed some PA of the past couple days, and one could call this signal either a "retrace entry", a pullback to TL entry, or even (if long)--a higher low entry. However, in considering this signal, I have to consider MANY other things. Listed below. Signal (with demand line, reverse for short) 1. (Normal Signal) Price rejects demand line suggesting traders are still seeking new value higher. Go long, possibly on a three bar reversal pattern. Pattern need not be evident. A rejection of this line is sufficient proof. 2. (Normal Signal Failure) Price plummets through demand line, suggesting traders are seeking a lower new value. Go short, after a retest of this demand line. Did it become possible resistance? A retest will confirm this, short after retest, possible double top. 3. (Normal Signal Failed Failure) Price plummets through demand line, it retests the demand line, and continues upwards, creating new higher highs. Traders momentarily looked for value lower and found none. They went back up. This move probably shakes a lot of heads, but it's often. 4. (Normal Signal, into Range) Price often retraces, to a line of demand or supply, if the moves are very fast and upwards--for a demand line---a lot of times, price will range TO THE DEMAND LINE. Generally, if price makes a very big move, it might range for a while. I write all of this because every signal contains not only it's initial signal, but also it's failure, AND it's failed failure. Meaning, it looks like it failed, but it didn't, it's going to continue what it was doing. Always assume continuation though right? Tomorrow, I hope to post a chart detailing what it is I'm studying, and how I'm choosing a signal...and their failures. Thoughts? -->J
Few random thoughts I have been doing a lot of research into what signal I want to pursue as my one trading signal. I want to perfect it, move it to SIM and understanding everything around it. What you best be working to perfect ; Your ability to identify it Your ability to trade it Your ability to always identify a stop placement (that is obviously what you consider low risk) Most importantly…, Your ability to realize – sometimes a trade is going to work…, and sometimes a trade is going break down – and no matter which happens…, either is a perfectly acceptable outcome Getting…, and embracing that last sentence – is the only thing that will separate you…, as a trader…, from everyone else ================ You want to memorialize trading…, or be a fuckin trader Get over demand / supply…, demand lines / supply lines – those are the “potential” whys We haven't the time to think about the whys..., till after hours Also..., Get over the ”suggesting” traders are seeking anything - BS Nobody knows what the hell other traders are suggesting…, for that matter most traders don’t what the hell they are suggesting..., much less thinking Leave that shit to the gurus This about the what’s.., where’s.., and when’s What’s price doing What am I doing in relation to that Where will I get in Where does this trade signal cease being valid (breakdown) Where will I get out (loss or profit) When will I be doing this Is the risk I must take - worth this trade's potential reward ================ A line…, any line (or any context for that matter) – in and of itself..., is not a signal PA’s actions…, albeit…, in..., at…, near…, or around – whatever line/ context…, provides the signal for us to either enter…, exit..., or pass And those same PA signals – identify when the trade is working..., or..., when a trade has broken down ============= Be a trader…, and trade…, knowing sometimes a trade will work…, and other times it will break down Or..., be a talker concerned with why Traders don’t give a shit about why - only that they're either losing..., or.., making money Context (lines or whatever) only mean something if price acknowledges it / them By the time it becomes evident price has…, or…, of the whys price is doing something (the demand / supply bullshit) That trade opportunity has long already passed Focus on what price is doing…, and what you are doing about that – nothing else ================ Next Go long, possibly on a three bar reversal pattern. This sentence.., hence thinking – change it It comes off as the signal is a foregone conclusion Again…, once the signal know – the trade opportunity is long gone (leads to chasing that trade…, which increases risk…, while also reducing the “potential” reward) There always must be supporting PA – for whatever potential signal you’re seeking out It is that PA – that ultimately creates the signal…, And it is that very same PA that we must be able to pick up on – and trade - real time Your sentence…, hence thinking should go like this; Possibly go long – on a potential 3 bar pattern =========== Takes an incredible amount of focus to trade – more than you can even imagine right now Which is one…, of the reasons - we can’t be concerned with the useless “whys” We’ve got to stay focused on what…, where…, when And we must keep our thinking in the present (get behind PA - you're screwed..., get ahead of PA - you're screwed) Having said all this…, you are certainly free to choose your path =============== Final thought; Please seek out and welcome other trader's input - as this is ultimately how you'll piecemeal you approach together It is exactly how most of us have done it Unfortunately - the mental side - will still be all you Better setups do not singularly lead to better results - they lead to clearer thinking Clearer thinking is a catalyst to better results Better results also require a trader whose able to consistently..., repeatedly..., and objectively - execute RN
One additional thought Please don't confuse supply / demand..., with S&R When you see S or R forming / being respected - trade it RN
Don't do PA so can't help you on the specifics of your entries, I'm more of a momentum the market is generally going up, take the lows on waves ( Not elliot BS ) kinda trader.
Ok. What you said in bold, I'm interpreting as, signals fail. Either outcome is acceptable. How to trade the signal, and if it fails, accept it. Don't concern myself with the failures, failed failures, failed failures of a failure. It happens. Take the small loss, move on. Here's the signal I'm working on. The 15 minute had a clear uptrend channel. On the 5, we saw a lot of ranging premarket into the open. This zone could be possible S or R depending on price action. At 1155 price broke this range and headed for the up trend line which was drawn far before price ever moved there from context. Up to 1225, lower highs and lower lows were made. If I were to draw a line, this supply line broke at 1230, followed by a higher high. Price retrace and didn't even reach the DL, creating a lower low. This SIGNAL, is a long above that bar letting price swoop me in. Using the 1 minute for entry, buy is placed at green circle 4 ticks above the high of 1241 bar. Trade initiated with this signal Initial Stop placed under that swing low at 4140.75. Target is set for possible R at the median of the zone above from the open at 4149. However, as price moved, it would also be immediately exited for profit or loss at a demand line break. Target was reached. If it wasn't and it ranged, line would have broke and I would have exited anyway. After target reached there is an obvious DT suggesting that zone is resistance, and could be another signal, but I will limit myself to only one for now.