That day in 2000 was a bit lively. Do you remember the ECB had tipped the nod to the euro banks in the morning so euro dollar was bid to old boots all morning. The Old Lady then rang a UK clearer and asked to buy eurodollar but then said in effect- sorry, ignore that, not intervening yet! -and then intervened a few minutes later. My P/L swings that day were frightening.
Dont you believe it. First wave of intervention typically used to say move the currency a couple of big figures. It then reatraces say 50pips so they come in again. Moves it 40 pips. Retraces so they come in again. By the end of the day they have usually come in 5-8 times and by the end it doesnt move a pip when they do. That episode in 2000 if I remember rightly on the day they hardly moved it at all although it did signal the start of the euro's recovery in the longer term.
Do you fathom what it would take for the ECB to make a concerted effort along the Fed to save the dollar? Much more than a 10% retracement in the stock markets, and then only if there's enough motive for everyone. In 2000 everybody wanted a stronger euro. Today nobody wants to eat the Fed's residue. Besides. The only effective way to intervene is to put some clown in charge of the country. And even that works only to the downside. The market is way too big for anybody being able to prop anything artificially. Even CBKs are not big enough, because there's always some big bank/hedge fund traders somewhere in the world with virtually unlimited liquidity to play chicken. Again, in 2000 the euro reversed because it was fundamentally much stronger than its prices.
"That episode in 2000 if I remember rightly on the day they hardly moved it at all although it did signal the start of the euro's recovery in the longer term.." I thiught it started to recover the moment Saddam Husein said he didn't want to receive dollars for oil, but euros. What a dealer!
Iraq could have been about a number of things. What we know for SURE about the reason we were given (WMD's)... it was a lie. Shouldn't be any kind of shock... we should all be used to it by now.
Here's an article I just found: Not sure if it's any good, but it's another one for the conspiracy theorists. http://www.energybulletin.net/7707.html