Spin it whatever way you want, mate. The guy (I'm guessing you the way you took offense) doesn't like predictors but made one himself.
Sure. Complexity mathematics taught at Universities and non-linear modeling are "spin". It's not "offense". In frustration at someone who can lack such a basic understanding of mathematics. I mean ... seriously? You flunk out of Grade 9 Basic Math? Pure assumption, but I'd assume you have no work in Finance where modeling is called for? So at this point I have to assume: A) You are functionally ... shall we say ... challenged ? ... because I refuse to believe that anyone is truly that poor at math, once it has been spelled out for them. Especially in conversations having to do with Trading and Econometrics B) Since you have been going on for about 5 posts about a minor point ... you're being a dink intentionally. Either way and with either eventuality ... it's gotta suck to be you in life ...
As of the time of this post, there are exactly zero Google hits on the phrase "bayesian data splines." How am I going to acquire a background in something that the Gods of Google deem not to exist?
That's not a hit. The "scholarly articles" heading is just Google quoting you back your search terms. Put the phrase in quotes and try again. Are you being deliberately obtuse? Are you really a market pro, or just one of Dozu's Pro Boys (tm).
Let me demonstrate how you find information. We have a thing called the Internet. One link, can lead to another, which can lead to another. If the first result doesn't give you want you want? You can follow (that means click ... with your mouse) on links, that take you to something you said you wanted to know about. www.stat.cme.edu> "We describe a Bayesian method, for fitting curves to data drawn from an exponential ... curve fitting with free-know splines because the number of knots and their ..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoothing_spline http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~kass/papers/jss.pdf https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v014i14 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02563103 https://www.ism.ac.jp/editsec/aism/pdf/10463_2010_Article_321.pdf http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~cschwarz...hop/Workshop-handouts/TW-04-Intro-splines.pdf https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.5044954 https://www.ece.uvic.ca/~bctill/papers/mocap/Silverman_1985.pdf
Now that the math genius can google his spelling should improve - meanwhile back on topic: Sept Core CPI and Median CPI (calculated by Cleveland Fed) hit their highest levels in 10+ years. No wonder Dump is sending troops to Saudi Arabia. Comrades Warren or Sanders, could beat him like a red-headed Russian stepchild, if oil gets within sniffing distance of $100/barrel before Nov'20.
Nationally checking account cash balance is at all time high. Anecdotally. Friend of mine makes good coin for many years and gotta have 1-2 mil in liquid. But 3/4 of it is in cash. The bottom 50% will always be broke and can’t afford a $500 expense. But middle and upper middle class has been doing well. And the market doesn’t care who has the cash lol.