"I want to return to something you know I was saying back in December. Which is that the Fed's rate hikes were a mistake." ............ "So what are you saying _____? Is another 2008 Financial Crisis on the way? Are you predicting that? I hope everyone knows me better than that. I don't know ... no one knows ... and I don't predict."
Yeah ... input stimuli onto a complex non-linear system. You don't have to predict, when someone decides to throw a boulder in a pond. It's not prediction. It's ... What the frack were you thinking with the current context of the system?! Nine months out? God ... literally ... only knows ..
Exactly. You'll need a background in complex systems; and if you have any background in Bayesian Data splines, you'll be ahead (Once the Data Splines have established your space, in something like a 3x + 2y = 7 ... you have enough data to set the spline). if you're interested, here's a starter for you: http://www.sigma-research.com/bookshelf/rtbookc2.htm The basis of all non-linear / complex systems, of when your input on that system can be defined to P(A)>0.51, higher naturally the better; you can start to build your model moving into the future. As with all things trading, and any game of chance ... it's all about that E-ratio on data that you have right now and the state of the system right now
I actually read something interesting the other day about how the IPO market is showing almost the opposite of the pre-crash .com days (if you remember way back then!). Then it was my aircraft mechanic who last week was asking me how to open a brokerage account shouting into his phone to get the latest unicorn IPO shares a week later (literally happened). This time it's the late stage VC/PE folks with the irrational exuberance getting burned when the punters most definitely are not tripping over themselves to grab those IPO shares. Not sure exactly what that indicates, but I'm interested in thoughts?
I'd say the VC guys became impatient and lowered their standards. Mistress maybe wants a new chateau or something.
You found a set Baysian data-spline "complicated"? Look ... I even gave you an example. if you have 3x + 2y = 7 ... you can obviously solve for that problem. It's that simple. There are solutions to the above. You learn that in Junior High School. Different solutions. But solutions. Ergo, there are solutions on a complex system, "today", and those probabilities break down as you move into the future. Ergo ... there are conclusions that you can come to in the present, even on a Complex System. Ergo ... how Financial Institutions who run non-predictive models, make money. They understand these very basic concepts. If you can't get that? I'm sorry. Not my job to educate you. But please, feel free to quote mine some more, despite your inability to grasp simple High School mathematics.
LOL you are the one not following along. I copy/pasted two segments of what you posted that someone else said where they mentioned how they said, previously, fed hikes were a mistake then in the same breath said they don't predict. Nothing about to do with Bayesian (or Baysian) Math or any other kind.
As I said mate ... I can't teach you basic High School Mathematics. I followed along just fine, and was very politely ... tactfully ... trying to point out, that the first statement was not a prediction. Let's try ... one more time. This is an illustration, to try (as I was doing before) to show you the mathematical difference between predictions, and a simple known data spline that is already existent on the system. Fed Hikes were a mistake = Illustration of ( 3x + 2y = 7 ) ... in other words, multiple answers, which means there ARE answers, at times, multiple answers = Bayesian Data Spline = Since it is a Data Spline <> Prediction = Already existent data that is not in the future ... again <> Prediction Will not predict (or will occur, or whatever syntax you wish to use, since the Original Post referenced economic outcomes which takes months to play out, if not a year) = 9 months out on a complex system = Too far into the future to make a prediction since too many unknown variables on a complex system. Known Data Splines = Not a Prediction 9 months in the Future = Prediction I can't really make it any more clear, than that