Fed will start tapering QE in September

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-maps-exit-from-stimulus-2013-05-10-191031815


By September Dow will be nearing 18k
I bet they will reduce it by 5 bln at most

and they will wait and see for another year.

Then in a year Dow will be 25 K and then collapse 20K in one day and Fed will start emergency QE5 300 bln a month

 

This might be significant. FED hinting at the end of QEn's has usually started the topping process, over the past four years.

The real wild card now is how all the other competing CB's are devaluing this time, no longer trying austerity. FED could just be sensing their moment to unload while the other CB's are finally ready to get in the water.....

:eek:

 

Ask any crack addict, coming off it is hard.
Don't know any? Don't worry, you will.

 

actually, cocaine is a very easy habit to kick

very easy and quick to get get hooked

and relatively easy to kick

I'd hardly call it hardcore

they chew it on a regular basis in Peru, even old women

and they don't go into rehab when they immigrate to USA

 

Anyone care to share their trade ideas, long or short term, on bonds?

 

I'd say short US treasuries for the mid- to long-term! Yields definitely won't go much lower...

 

Ok, but more specifically, what would the strategy be?

At what price levels or what time frames do you want to go short? And, where do you cry uncle, if ever (assuming you agree that markets could conceivably remain irrational beyond your original speculation)?

Presumably you wish to employ some degree of leverage to realize outsized returns. Thus, we need to have a plan beyond just 'short for the mid-long term'.

An entry or series of entries, and a stop, or a series of stops.. or strategy for entering and crying uncle if proven wrong, is more of what I was hoping others might share here.

 

Are you all illiterate? Where does that say anything about the Fed ending QE?

All it says is that they have an exit strategy for whenever they do exit. Last I checked they said they may increase QE after the last fed meeting. I guess you just hear/read what you want too.

 

yeah i don't see them increasing it. its very odd how the fed sees downside and wall st is seeing economic growth / sales growth next quarter.

 

As this isn't a day trade I don't worry too much about exact levels, but right now is a good time to go short, and exiting when the yields have risen to their long-term averages, potentially even higher depending on the situation then.