Two weeks ago is likely to have been the top on this green shoot madness, that was when people went to the point of actually thinking the fed would raise rates as early as september. There is your contrarian indicator http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arWqPRMOr14A
The non-farm payroll reports between now and September's may be "manipulated" by somehow overstating the number of Summer jobs for students. That can cause Eurodollar futures to fall 50-to-100 points bringing about the backdrop for the Fed to go on a tightening cycle. We'll see.
In 2003 a 'considerable period' meant 12 months for pausing, 'extended period' is likely to mean at least 18