Discussion in 'Economics' started by crgarcia, May 6, 2007.
the rates may be steady, but the FED will start talking the economy down so they can get the easing cycle underway. So bonds are in a win win situation.
equities might have a reflexive rally, but should sell off secondary to worries about the economy and FED language. A test close to 1460 on spooz is possible before the actual easing starts.
As the FED finishes the easing cycle, other global economies may follow suit, will instigate a dollar rally, which should coincide with the next presidential cycle.
bonds are win win if you like holding them denominated in the quicksand that is the USD...
rates will stay unchanged at 5.25%
Dont expect any cut in the rates till the end of 2007 early 2008.
Expect more talk about both food/energy inflation, tight job market, and some certain sectors slowing.
Net effect, zero. Forget about any rate cuts. The dollar is already on "life support".
Fed is still printing them.....
the black line at the tip is the data filled in after the Fed. stopped "officially" reporting the M3 number.....
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