or how about the worst case scenario --- fed raises .25 and has a ton of verbiage about inflation in the announcement. remember that greenie {inflation hawk} would not want to go out as someone who missed the big inflation spike.
I agree with this. Doesn't matter what Greenspan decides to do, the reaction will aim to take out all those betting on a rally. The poll here already shows the imbalance and as we all know, there are more losers than winners.
interesting how similar the ET poll stats are to the real betting... "According to futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade, <b>investors are betting there's an 84 percent chance the central bank will raise its target for the federal funds rate</b>, an overnight bank lending rate that is the Fed's main tool for manipulating monetary policy"
Actually, Oct. 30-day Fed Funds futures (ZQ) currently indicate 95% probability of a raise today, using the average of bid and ask (96.2625).
My opinion is there will be a hike, but then some language indicating no further hikes. That's almost like a 'pause' isn't it? Just a thought
The real Q is how many times has the Fed not been accurately predicted by the FedFund futures? Right now its almost a lock (around 95%) for a raise. Anytime in the past this happen and the Fed did the unexpected?