Fed raises rates

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by Scataphagos, Dec 19, 2018.

  1. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    No. Rates were 0-0.25% for 7 years ("Close enough!), but have risen by just the quarter-point since the first, December 2015. Very steady.
    Here is a great history...
    https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135
    ☼ The FED started lowering rates in 2006, from ~5%.
    Rates hit ~0% in December 2008, during Bush45's term.
    ☼ Janet Yellen's first FOMC mtg was when rates were first raised after the crisis: December 2015.
    ☼ Rates have risen very slightly, very steadily, since then.

    Them are the facts -- which won't confuse some hereabouts, that's for sure.:rolleyes:
    The FED are about monetary policy, not fiscal.
    The FED are *not* about one political party OR THE OTHER.
    Them as think otherwise should try out some history, first.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2018
    #21     Dec 20, 2018
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  2. SteveM

    SteveM

    People seem to forget that the Fed has been hiking for the last 2 YEARS, and the markets rallied very strongly during the entire time......until all of a sudden......dear leader started badgering the Chinese and (to a lesser extent) the EU on trade and started implementing tariffs.

    Couple this with a sudden surge in Brexit uncertainty, and global confidence has been rightly shaken.

    Recent chaos in the markets has far more to do with politicians than it does the Fed in my opinion.
     
    #22     Dec 20, 2018
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  3. It's normal for markes to take interest rate increase "with a grain of salt" up to a point... thinking that earnings can "handle and overcome" the negative effect of rates. But at some point, the markets say "no mas".

    As for "chaos in the markets"... beside rates, the other biggie is potential trade war with China. That's partly political, of course... and long overdue. America has been hosed and abused on the trade front for a long time.
     
    #23     Dec 20, 2018
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  4. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    In what world do you live?
    The world where a sub7% GDP growth rate in the second *largest* world economy is seen as recession???
    The world where Germany's industrial activity index backs off of 60 is seen as recession?!?
    The world where domestic unemployment is not sub6%, or sub5%, but sub4% ?!?!?!

    The fact that p/e's have bumbled along at >20-25 for the past few years -- and are now *edging* down to historic averages..... is *that* the complaint?:wtf::confused::rolleyes::cool:

    Call me when the S&P p/e hits 15, then we'll talk.:cool:
    2350 is when we *start* to have underpriced markets.

    (("It's like, they all bitch 'Take away the punch bowl! Take away the punch bowl!'
    and then you take away the punch bowl,
    and then everyone's screaming, 'Where's the damn punch bowl?!?!?'"))
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2018
    #24     Dec 20, 2018
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  5. destriero

    destriero


    Iceberg? What iceberg?!

    I love the nuanced move away from his boy Trump. Scat will be a Never Trumper in a few months. Ahh, the hypocrisy.
     
    #25     Dec 20, 2018
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  6. S2007S

    S2007S



    2350 haha....I'll call you when the s$p is under 1800, how about that??? investors won't care about a market PE at 15 when ecomomies are falling apart and liquidity is frozen.... unemployment numbers ticking higher and gdp falling off a cliff ....next crisis will be greater than 2008...
     
    #26     Dec 20, 2018
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  7. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    But your "facts" completely support the view that Fed policy has been political. The crisis was over WAY before Dec. 2015. But if the Fed started an aggressive rate hiking/QE tightening policy in, say 2014, it may have hurt the markets (a lot more than what happened in 2015-16), damaged Obama's legacy and seriously hurt Hillary's chances. A true apolitical, data-dependent Fed wouldn't have waited 7 full years. 7 years of ZIRP and massive QE was completely unprecedented.
     
    #27     Dec 20, 2018
  8. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Yep, that's EXACTLY what happened circa 2004-2006.
     
    #28     Dec 20, 2018
  9. destriero

    destriero

    I don't see a 50% drop, so no, it won't be worse than 2008.
     
    #29     Dec 20, 2018
  10. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    Ok enough, time to take you to the woodshed and pour some water on your bs.

    Your posts have been complete trash for 9 years. In 2015, we both weighed in what was coming later in the year. I nailed the event, one rate hike and a normal size correction. You said a 40-60% crash and negative US interest rates within 2 years ( expired ). Again, I will reiterate, there will NEVER be negative interest rates in the US. That's how bad your judgement is, that you think this is coming short term. There is no "normal" interest rate at 5%+.
     
    #30     Dec 20, 2018