(Bloomberg) And finally, here's what Katie’s interested in this morning Narratives change pretty quickly when traders have their eyes trained on every incremental data point. Case in point: rate hikes are back in the conversation. Citigroup said this week that markets would be wise to start hedging for the possibility that the Federal Reserve reverts back to raising rates after a brief easing cycle. “The market should price in some risk of future hikes – look to 1998,” Citi’s Jason Williams wrote in a note. This cycle “could be more akin to the 1998 easing cycle, which was short-lived and led to more rate hikes. If inflation does not return to a consistent 2% the upside tails around future Fed hikes should increase from this very depressed level.” Interestingly, Citi’s Williams published his thesis a day before the release of January’s inflation report, which showed that both the headline and core consumer price index rose by more than forecast last month. While a weaker-than-expected January retail sales print gave some comfort to bond bulls on Thursday, traders have pushed out their bets on the Fed’s first cut. In the aftermath of the print, Kit Juckes of Societe Generale took it a step further than Citi. The chief FX strategist said that the Fed’s next move could actually be a hike rather than a cut, given that more than 500 basis points of tightening since 2022 has done little to cool the US economy. “If the US economy reaccelerates, the Fed will eventually have to tighten again and the dollar will rally,” Juckes wrote in a note to clients.
Not to mention Trump's tariffs some of which the Biden Admin foolishly left in place. Tariffs and regulatory capture, interfere with competition. Capitalism only works well in competitive markets. We see this beautifully illustrated by the Medical care delivery system in the United States.
The accounting in the first video seems wrong in serious ways. M2 (the most popular measure of the Money supply) doesn't include Treasury bonds. (Bank reserves don't include bonds; yet Bonds are also money.) After this I didn't bother with the second video. I tried to look the guy up that did the first video. Couldn't find much other than his Heresy financial website. He seems to be a scam artist. I'd be very cautious here.
Is it maybe can't afford a Playstation or an XBox? That would pretty much be the end of life as we know it.
https://dnyuz.com/2024/02/17/the-great-compression/ The Great Compression tells the story of how some builders are now building 20 x 20 houses.