Read Galbraiths "The Great Crash". Academics haven't improved much in market wisdom you would say since the 1920's.
i just read this book : Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century and it clearly shows that the whole usa model based on comsommation doesn't work. USA is deadly in debt .. by increasing/decreasing rates Fed managed to make this model work but one day or another one of the borrower or the lender will have to pay.. that will be the beginnig of the decline of the USA.