Fed Minutes: Up to 6 Years Before 'Recovery'

Discussion in 'Economics' started by MattF, Jul 14, 2010.

  1. MattF



    The newest minutes from the June 22 to 23, 2010 FOMC meeting is a lowering of economic growth estimates from the Federal Reserve for the rest of 2010. The market has already reflected this in the June sell-off, and the market recovery so far in July has began to address a lower growth environment rather than a true double-dip recession. This is effectively an increase in the chances of more stimulus if the slowing down gets much worse.

    The standout notion outside of the inflation commentary is that the Fed seems to now think that it could be another 5 to 6 years for the economy to recover to a sustainable independent growth level. The good news is that the FOMC also believes that no further accommodation was needed for now.

    One of the weaknesses noted was that the jobs market recovery has remained elusive and the issues affecting Europe were a drag. No board members suggested that more rounds of securities purchases were needed to support the system, but it seems as though there is also a trend to defer at least some of the asset sales that had been on the table.

    In short, the FOMC is still on hold.

    Market priced in. Sounds like we may just be in a near "lost decade" then "suddenly" things crank up for a few more years....hmmm when did this last happen....

    Meanwhile, the market is priced in...
  2. Bernanke is destroying us. Time to fire him, timmy, and Larry summers
  3. If it would take six years, would not the market go on discounting spree? 6 years at 5% per year can be around 40% discounting? It is scary.
  4. wave


    Sounds right.

    Housing bottom still not near a bottom. Expect commercial and million dollar plus residential real estate to start defaulting in much larger numbers over the next four years. Then another two years for the smoke to settle from the healthcare overhaul in 2014.

  5. Bob111


    didn't he says 10-6 months ago that he sees firm recovery in second half of 2010?
    and obama was saying same thing for year or so? what happens?
    they no better than cramer : zero credibility.

    my bet that we are going to follow japan scenario-10-20 years of housing,markets and currency going down. rates flat
    whis is basically what he was saying now

    oh ..i forgot..thet are busy..counting jobs "saved" or created-


    it's about 300K per job "saved" or created..

  6. TGregg


    Gee, if we are in a very similar situation to what Japan faced then do similar things to what they did. . . why I bet something completely different will happen! Oh yeah!

    They must be up to a trillion jobs "created or saved" by now. If you are a winner in life's lottery, then you owe your paycheck to The One.
  7. 6 would be considered lucky, at least daytraders know how long they have to work at Walmart before returning to the market.

    See you guys in 2016:D