Yeah, but if they hike it sends an "ABANDON SHIP" signal to homebuilders, commercial builders, retailers, automakers, mortgage lending, investment banks, and commercial banks. Its checkmate, IMO
Once again, there is not a monetary solution to the problems in the US economy. Moving the discount and fed funds rates around will only result in temporary results which will be helpful in one place are harmful in another. In that regard the Fed has already done what it can and we see the result. Some changes in regulation may be helpful but there is great danger in over-regulating. Perhaps undoing some of the damage wrought by Phil Gramm and those of his ilk might be helpful. Without question, changes in mortgage lending are needed and in particular the connection between credit risk and bond ratings needs to be re-established. But the single most helpful act that the US could undertake to resuscitate its ailing economy would be to put its fiscal house in order. Borrowing money from China so we can send everyone a check is not my idea of wise fiscal stewardship.
The Fed does not have to concern itself with crude prices, Congress can drop the price of crude temporarily, if would get off it's lazy a**. Unfortunately they will do nothing because it's a rallying cry for the elections. Opec collared oil prices for 2 decades forcing all the independents as well as a few big boys out of business, now it's payday. Here's something for those who think opening up all the drilling fields will solve the problem, what makes you think the oil companies will drill? Everyone in the oil field now is making untold fortunes, why kill the cow who gives the milk. And what will stop our oil from being sold over seas for higher prices as opec cuts production to bolster price? The fed raising rates now would lead to a meltdown of the markets, stability is what they are after. However the rates will need to be brought up, probably sometime next year. They are rolling the dice hoping that the economy can get a foothold before they are forced to do the inevitable.
A stronger USD would shake-out specs and a lot of the leverage that is causing problems. I would love to see Ben hike 100 bps, then watch the rats scurry.... ------- Mr. Chairman, Please, we won't yell at you. Raise rates a full point. We're begging you: shake out the weak hands. Best Regards, The Elite Traders