I think you just started that yourself just right now... HOPE is a four letter word in trading... Yes, the rate cut will probly happen....
A rate cut equals more carry trade unwinding; and capitals flee; encourage more bad loan; add pressure to inflations and risk of increasing taxes. The only thing can save the economy is dropping of oil price; and discourage wasteful spending.
If they are going to cut, they should wait until the meeting. I think what Greenspan did by cutting rates before the meeting was ridiculous. The markets spiked and people lost money.
I doubt if they will cut today, but I think the markets will sell off hard when that becomes obvious. Next week could get ugly.
If a rate cut before the meeting = Bernake is a panicked greenhorn We got our data point which confirms the Fed's next move, .25 down. I think you will lose betting on cut before the meeting as well as anything more than .25bps. Now the question is going to be how many cuts we will get in successive meetings. A 4.75 fed funds looks like a good target and an $800 gold price. Keep the bad businesses borrowing to fuel more weak jobs growth, oh what a model. Hey, stop working for the man and just borrow until the cows come home to start any crap business you can think of because as soon as you start to fail, there will be more money for you. Good Luck!