I wish something could be done but I fear for the worst. I've been selling real estate in Canada for 24 years and have seen my share of corrections....but the fear out there is alarming! The real estate market is getting worse by the day, really by the hour! I have dozens of agent friends in the U.S. I hear from weekly and things are looking worse than Ugly. The problem is there is no leadership and those in charge have almost played all their cards and mainstreet knows this. Mainstreet is shitting it's pants....this is gonna get very Ugly. I'm trying to look at the bright side! I have Zero debt but I have to admit things have been very cushy for me the last few years! Wow...there really is gonna be BLOOD IN THE STREETS!
There almost has to be blood in the streets. We've (US consumer) been on a radical spending spree for the past 25+ years. When we ran out of money, we borrowed from CC's and home equity lines. Now the rubberband (spending) doesn't have any more room to expand. It's time for a snap back and it's going to get ugly. Long term, it's probably what we need the most. Unfortunately, it hasn't been only the private sector that has borrowed and spent beyond their means. It's been the government as well.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm Fed funds have already been cut ... Look they are trading at around 1% on average lately. Thursday was at .67%
03-08-07 10:00 PM Quote from Degenerate: You are right everything it different from 2000. The world is a riskier place and risk premiums of dwindled to nothing. The state of the economy?....All I know is that in 1980 it took $1 of debt to create $1 of GDP. That same $1 of expansion comes at a cost of $7 today. You think 3% GDP expansion is sustainable given the cost? I personally do not. There is a big difference in true economic expansion and one that is debt induced. We are clearly in the latter and one day we will have to pay for it. I could go on in regards to how assets prices are simply a reflection of a liquidity driven bubble but whats the point. You clearly have your opinion and I have mine. If you are comfortable levering up here on the long side power to you. I think the prudent thing to do is to exercise caution. I am acting accordingly. Good Luck to you. Quote from Scriabinop23 where are you getting these numbers from? productivity, employment, and energy output efficiency are all at record #s. In 1980, you had a market with PEs seriously contracted since cash and bonds were performing so well, and had intense inflationary pressure (from guess what? commodities) on top of that. This environment is much more hospitable to economic growth than the previous one. As far as total government debt, I agree we need to get a handle on that, but as a percentage of GDP its not way out of line. look to Japan for an example that makes us look like fiscal wizards. medicare/social security entitlements as well as annual budgets need to be resolved. thats a timebomb waiting to blow. but its not a near term issue. regardless, it seems dollar policy is to inflate our way out of debt responsibilities. That means equities appreciation, commodity appreciation, and DECREASED BUYING POWER. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/Sur...ods=Annual+Data for unemployment rate. notice 1980 is near 8%, double current rates. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/Sur..._id=PRS85006092 productivity rates are off the charts in comparison. Just curious to get your take now.
If a major bank goes under, or some terrible news sends futures waaay down on Sunday, there could be a chance of a cut. Otherwise, no cut.
i dont think they cut until ecb cuts later in the week? anyways mon-tuesday could be good time to buy some stock in expectance of a rate cut and a possible bounce this last down leg is overdone.