i see on tv that odds are 90% (or whatever) of fed cutting 50bps today. if i believe fed will cut less than 50 what is best way to sell that 90% odds? fed fund futures, front month eurodollar?
?......Short-sell the deferred Fed Funds contracts, not the spot month. The spot month won't be as reponsive when the FOMC meeting takes place towards the end of the month because of the averaging-effect. Short-selling stocks and buying the 10-year note or 30-year bond would usually benefit from an easing that is less-than-expected.