http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ay-guide?nl=dealbook&emc=edit_dlbkam_20151216 http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-16/fed-day-junk-bonds-and-unicorns http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BND,TLT,LQD http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt Trade: With TLT at 121.17 March 126/131 bear call spread for a net credit of $75 Yield = 75/425 = 17.6% in 93 days or 69% annualized Prob = 70% Expectation = .7(75) - .15(425) - .15(212) = 52.5 - 63.8 - 31.8 = -43.1 Price................. Profit / Loss............ ROM % 100.00..................... 75.00................ 17.60% 110.00..................... 75.00................ 17.60% 120.00..................... 75.00................ 17.60% 126.00..................... 75.00................ 17.60% 126.75....................... 0.00.................. 0.00% 131.00.................. (425.00)............... -82.40% 134.29.................. (425.00)............... -82.40% 149.02.................. (425.00)............... -82.40% 163.75.................. (425.00)............... -82.40% Expectation is a little too negative for this trade right now...but it's worth watching.
Well the rate change has been announced but is so small as to have no substantial effect. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt
I agree, everyone was making a big deal about this 'historic' Fed rate change day. -- but it wasn't that big of a deal. Kind of like the Star Wars The Force Awakens movie...most people are saying it's just blah. (all of this is like having great long sex, but barely coming. )