Fed cut Monday or Tuesday

I just need to dispel the myth contained in that first statement, about rates being at historical lows.
This is false. See attached. Fed Funds is more or less at its normal level during its history. It has spent more time being lower or equal to the current rate than higher; the only period where this wasn't so was during the seventies and eighties.

Source

 

exactly. who do these people think they are. they are so stupid that they cant see that they are getting conned by these lenders. soon all these people that bought homes way over their means are going to lose them, wind up getting divorced because they wont be able to eat out every night of the week and pay $12 for a measured Grey Goose on the rocks.( now thats inflation). pretty soon people are going to start cooking at home. women will who dont work that have kids and a NANNY will have to take care of their own kids and forget driving their suvs' to starbucks sipping on coffee and then complain about driving their kids to soccer practice.

WAKE UP PEOPLE
stop spending your moneythings will get alot worse

 

I see no reason for you to think that. I don’t think tax cuts, weak dollar, and gap from rich to poor widening can kept us an economic superpower long. Recession can’t be blamed on political parties but my god you need to address the problem when your party is in power.

 

Raise your hand if you think maybe this market doesn't need some of the excess liquidity squeezed out. The market is doing exactly what it should.....punishing those that mis priced risk!

I think the fed is looking a gift horse in the mouth, policy wise. Now the political side? That's a completely different scenario.

If Bernanke did cut rates, I think that would scare the hell out of the market.

 

wallstreet is holding equities hostage, its basically telegraphing to the FED, 'bail us out or else!', we will take it all down americans pension plans/savings...

to telegraph this message even more, Monday should have further widening of the ranges to 1410 or so... or 1416 in sep ES futures.

and if the FED isn't accommodative, Wallstreet will spill more blood on the streets till the FED does step in. Its basically extortion.

 

Rate cut has nothing to do with helping the stock market. It has to do with the mortgage markets that as of friday has nearly shut down. Last time this happened in 1998 the fed did a surprise cut. This time seems 3 times as worse with respects to the credit markets. The fed could care less about the Dow being down 800 points. But they do care that overnight the secondary market for many different types of mortgages shut down. Housing is almost sure to take a 3'rd hard leg down if the mortgage market doesn't find some liquidity. A few lairs of the mortgage market dissapeared on friday. Who will be able to buy the overpriced homes now.

Maybe some mortgage/ credit experts can weigh in on current situation.

 

I look at gold and gold stocks to gauge the chances of a Fed cut in times like these.
For the past month, unlike what happened around Feb 27, gold and gold stocks have handily, and more importantly, consistently outperformed the stock markets. So, the chances are getting somewhat better for a cut. That, or the Fed is running the presses harder.
Of course, as I write this gold is down a buck forty from Friday, but Friday was a very good day far as gold goes, so a bit of profit-taking is probably pretty normal.

 

Tonight's yield curve is giving a major tell. The 5yr is up 7/32nds with the Bond unchanged. Someone senses a liquidity injection.....

 

Rate cut?
Are you really Jim Cramer or something?

 

Excess liquidity is what got the market to this point in the first place