Fed cut 0.25% or hold interest rates?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Doji7, Oct 13, 2007.

  1. Doji7


    What do you think guys.....
  2. If the FED cuts rates this month, the top will be in and the markets will trade significantly lower.
  3. Nah, they wait. Market's already adjusted to that. Economic good news on Friday was taken in stride, whereas a couple of weeks ago, there would probably have been a selloff because it would have indicated that the Fed would stay on hold.
    If the statement goes back to an Aug 7 style statement, however, then you'll see a nice drop.
    Next week should be interesting. Options expiration, the Fed, and I think GOOG reports too. Time for some dramamine.
  4. I am still not so sure. A 25bps cut is not completely off the table. Only time will tell but, I'm suspicious that they will cut rates.
  5. vectors101

    vectors101 Guest

    what i don't get is Japan's interest rate has been 1% for years yet there real estate and stock market hasn't rallied or uneffected by interest rates.

    Japans economic structure is totally different from America..it seems we don't operate in same market...

  6. May I turn your attention to this article ? =>


    What do you think is Goldman paying a 43 percent premium for the company ? :D
  7. S2007S


    they usually don't cut rates just once...many are anticipating at least a .25 cut on OCt 31. I think if they cut them again it will only show that this economy is a lot slower than it really shows.
  8. Japan Inc. keeps rates low to prevent the Yen from gaining on the Dollar.....

    plus Japanese are savers an will invest in 1% JGBs even though they can get 4-5% in treasuries

    Japan is a nationalistic country... i.e. there is no immigration and you cant apply to be a Japanese citizen

    fairly weird place...........

    end of thread hijack........
  9. Nlite


    But now, Japan is selling USD in their holdings to save the debt so it makes USD fall down.....
  10. october 2007
    fed cuts -25 bp
    oil at 90 gold near 800
    stocks rally to 14400
    dollar falls.
    credit crunch gets worse.
    housing market down.

    november 2007
    fed cuts -50 bp
    oil at 100 gold near 850
    stocks rally to 14700
    dollar falls.
    credit crunch gets worse.
    housing market down.

    fed cuts -50 bp
    oil at 120 gold near 900
    stocks rally to 15000.
    dollar falls.
    credit crunch gets worse.
    housing market down.

    realisation of fed policy error.
    oil at 130 gold near 1000.
    stocks collapse to 11000.
    credit crunch gets worse.
    housing market in freefall,

    fed hikes rates 100bp
    oil at 100 gold near 1000.
    stocks collapse to 9000.
    dollar recovers.
    housing market in freefall.

    bernanke resigns.
    fed continues to hike
    dow at 10000.
    dollar recovers.
    oil at 80.
    gold at 800.

    the good days are gone.
    #10     Oct 17, 2007