Looks to me like this data annoucement is setting up to be a blood bath in the currency markets. Seems like traders are buying because they feel they are going to be left in the dust. It might get scarey if we start to head the other direction. Ridiculous. Then again, maybe I am just scared because I am long the dollar again. :eek:
You're thinking a rate hike instead? Anything otherwise (no cut/some cut) I think will be bad for the USD....
So many people looking for a little rally in the USD to dump their holdings for Euros that I see any USD strength as being fleeting.
dollar bear trade is a crowded trade. it will unwind at the first indication of fed with a neutral stance.
I think a lot of "stuff" is priced in. Certainly the .25 seems to be. I bet they do nothing. If I was long, I would be out of my trade right now. But I am short and losing money again.
The previous few posts aside, it's good to see you back, DRT. Speaking purely fundamentally at this stage (I know you prefer technicals), I'm not sure any further rise in the EUR/USD is warranted given we've essentially seen the Fed indicate it's now done with cutting (unless more drastically poor data presents itself). Additionally, I'm looking at the various levels in the EUR versus other currencies and am forced to wonder at what point European exporters cry "uncle!" or whether they might have done so at this point. Data - predominantly confidence data - from the EZ is dropping fast, and while Weber is running around like the maniac he is claiming he loves the strong Euro, I think it's primarily due to oil's price right now. If that corrects, the rest of them will tell him to pipe down. Add to that such severely overbought levels and oversold levels in the dollar index overall, and the fact that today marks the last day of the fiscal year for many banks worldwide, do you feel a change might be in the air? Looking for your insight, as always. -Ivan