My thought right now is that if 770 cash is penetrated then the door swings wide open for a potential move down to the May'06 high which is the 720-730 region. If there is significant covering to short-comm positions in this area matched with a significant spike low in the XAU, then a likely bottom will be put in place. The area also represents the current 200EMA on the continuous as well. However, when gold broke 600 back in early June '06, there was a panic spike low that occured and the price got hit down to 542 within a single 24hr. period of time (-$58 at one point). If by chance there is some panic induced selling brought about by a global equities rout, then it is conceivable that gold could get hit as low as 680. I'll be watching things very closely over the next few weeks...
I'd agree $770 is a good line in the sand. I'm figuring the dollar should top out by tuesday. All that's fueling it is short covering, nothing else. There certainly is no lasting, redeeming value in the green paper the Fed hands out, so any lift is temporary as long as the insurmountable debt and deficits remain.
there is already selling just under 800 cash now it appears. It looks as if the boys are trying to print a marginal positive close on COMEX gold today. If the SP gets weaker as the day progresses, then the metals could very well selloff after the floor closes. Platinum continues to look good but there could be some selling right at 1500. According my ZG daily chart, gold is already trading under the apex of the consolidation triangle. As long as ZGG trades under 804, then the risks continue to be on the downside for now...
XAU/HUI appears to be pricing in a gold takedown to at least 760-780 imo. I am short from basis 800 on the pin this afternoon with an absolute max target of 720. The base metals are really taking a beating today and the copper and gold shares are being sold heavily. The broader indices appear to be on very thin ice now with my expected break of 1470 on the SP. The break on 1460 cash SP brought about a serious technical failure and more selling is likley to at least the November or August low now. The boys ran Feb. Gold up to 801 after the floor closed to hit stops and now then the takedown has begun imo...
I've about had it with the gold market.... central banks can pound on it anytime and the miners stocks never seem to trend hopefully this is a contrary post..........
I would suggest then that they are a strong buy. The US dollar rally is approaching its major restistance level of 79-81. In a very short time I believe that the uptrend in gold & silver and the downtrend in the US$ will resume with force.
I am liking gold futures around 700 ish long, but this price is too high and its coming down. This failed rallies have been on lower volume, good night. 710-690 ish I will look for a base and a position trade. Long term I like it over 900, unless things change overnight in the US debt.