I went long yesterday. Waited til spot price broke $817....usd is now pulling back, seasonality is positive, recent events in Pakistan are all favourable for gold...plus oil is up.
Janvir, if you can't understand this bull run in gold then you shouldn't be in the business of trading. It is one of the most obvious bull runs in history. Fiat currencies being printed at 10-15% a year, a growing demand for alternative store of wealth in Chindia and middle east whose cultures have a long affinity with gold, an alternative to the US$, an inflation hedge. Don't mean to sound rude, but thats one of the most ridiculous comments I have read on here. You need to go and do some serious work to try and understand the reasons or you will send yourself and your family to the poor house. Just to be at the same inflation adjusted price of its last peak it will be around $2300-$2500.
I bet it has much more to do with the massive hedgie positions than anything Chindia is doing. Same reason crude is over valued, more or less. Although I believe both can go WAY higher, I only think gold might. Might is the key word here. Could get hammered in a global recession as well, which I, being in the minority big time, think is gonna happen in the next 2 years. My point, its volatile and ya can make bucks, but it can go down as well as up. When you believe it can only go one direction you are trading with blinders on. Its usually when you commit too much, and have stops too wide. Those are usually the painful ones, with the occasional career home run however. It is possible the dollar has bottomed. Never seen sentiment vs the dollar this negative. My prediction? I'm not a position trader so my prediction is worthless. Just be sure to look both ways before crossing the street. Jayford
Adwebster, I'm happy to continue this discussion, but without the use of hyperbole if that's ok. When you call my post 'ridiculous' you either must not have read many of the posts on this site or you have a very low tolerance for views that deviate from your own. In fact you sound like someone with an overleveraged long gold position who cannot afford to be wrong. I have to say, I am starting to see the bull case more clearly, having spent the past 2 days researching it intensively. They say the hallmark of a great trader is being able to pivot 180 degrees when you are dead wrong, so I have just switched to a long position of 3 contracts, with a stop at 800. Realist and Reardon Metals' posts were helpful, as was the ECB's decision to pump $500b into the markets. I belive the USD may appreciate in the medium term, so in order to hold gold I personally feel you must lose faith in all of the major liquid currencies, and the ECB seems as happy as the FED to inflate...
You'll have to develop a thick skin if you want to hang around here. Traders can be very tough to begin with and the anonymity of the boards only brightens the give and take. Having said that I agree that your earlier posts did indicate a less than optimal mindest for trading. I am a longer term trader and I know from bitter experience that anything can happen. Formulate an opinion, put your money down and if it is proven wrong, rethink and enter again. Don't just say 'This is impossible, I am right, I am entering again'. Congratulations for being able to let go of your assumptions. I truly hope the markets reward you this time and then the process will be positively reinforced. If the markets tank and you lose big, don't think you did the wrong thing. By the way... you're East Indian right? I would have thought that you have a handle on the non-economic hoarding of gold in Asia.
Trading of gold futures in China is supposed to start on 1/9/2008. Currently China is the #2 gold consuming country behind India. This will mean that Chinese investors will now have the option of investing in gold. A 2nd item is that the IMF said Friday that the US dollar portion of reserves at central banks has dropped from 65% to 63.8%, its lowest since 1999, and that Russia's central bank is adding gold at a rate of 10 tones per month. I see these as bullish for the price going forward.
1. Long yes, overleveraged no 2. So let me get this straight - For six years this bull run has confounded you (your words), yet after two days study it makes sense to you..... 3. Yes, but that alone doesn't make you a great trader. They also say the trend is your friend. Trading against it is THE BEST WAY to head to the poor house. If you don't understand why something is happening either sit on the sidelines, or get on in the direction it is heading. Whatever you do don't try and trade against it. Comments like you made don't exactly say 'I'm someone who knows what he's doing' 4.Wise move
Still long since 12/19 on Feb. Gold but rolled out of NYMEX and back into CBOT for Year-end P/L cut . 12/16 appears to have marked an important pivot in the metals complex. Bot more on the 825 break as I suggested and now looking for the 850 close. Out of PLF8 on Friday and now accumulating some small silver as long as 14.50 holds on a closing weekly basis. I'll be toning down on the posts moving forward. Interested traders in a timing service of sorts should PM me with their email address to be used for further contact. If there is enough interest than I would likely create a weekly metals report and email trade alert system for a recurring monthly charge. The focus would be short-term and intermediate gold/silver/platinum futures, both long and short strategies. I believe that I have identified and executed several winning metals trades on the metals forums for quite some while now... - Realist
It should become fairly obvious to all that the first week of the New Year has unfolded a brand new chapter in the gold bull story. Funds are getting out of stocks and rotating into gold/silver. The last time the XAU/HUI outperformed gold bullion by a factor of 2x in a single week, the metals themselves begun a very solid upside run that lasted for about 8-10 weeks. For those that are still interested in a timing service of sorts, be sure to send me a PM with your email address. I have received quite a few responses so far but not quite enough to justify starting the new service. For the record, I am still long several ZGG8s from just under 800 and I have initiated a new buy program for silver as well. With gold breaking out over the January 1980 high, this level is now serving as primary support with 855 being the secondary region. I expect to see 900 in a matter of a week or two...