CME FedWatch Tool yesterday morning was at 99.9% that they would only raise 25 bps. Where are you getting "how many thought otherwise" from? But make that the world doesn't operate in bubble outside the U.S. As goes The Fed other CBs follow. Meanwhile CL weakening for the second time in a matter weeks is interesting.
BTW FedWatch tool today shows next meeting's (3/22/23) anticipated (another 25 bps) rate hike chance of 84.1%.
The disconnect relates to job strength pushing raises. Powell's comments in the presser imply he will allow job strength as long as wage growth is tame. Not targeting a "soft landing" but focusing on mandated inflation targets. That's why we've rallied so hard. It's a pivot in the strongest possible language.
The Canadian CB has led the US Fed in interest rate moves and policy. In fact, the US Fed referred to it in their discussion. This is fact not open to debate. Same thing happened early in the 2009 bull. Try to keep up. Canada froze interest rate hikes. No need to consult the US Fed. Our inflation rate has been below the US rate throughout and our national debt to GDP is much lower since 2009. There was no bear market here in 2022. If you had invested in the TSX in 2022 in US$ you'd have made money.
Today it is down - so far - $40 from HOD wiping out all of yesterday's gain. And yes Powell mentioned CanCB once lately. Woo hoo