Fear of loss of profit

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Dantheman, Jan 31, 2003.

  1. You're damn right - It's a really magnificent quote. It seriously is worth framing by itself.

    It can indeed be applied to anything in life! Just replace the words...

    Love:
    "If you chase love you won't catch it, but if you do your job to the very best of your ability the love will chase you." :D

    Success:
    "If you chase success, you won't catch it, but if you do your job to the very best of your ability, the success will chase you."

    Applies to many more things... Just fill in: Business, fame, recognition, wisdom, friendship... Whatever it is you're chasing. There's a lot of things. Anybody who can make additions - Please do! :)

    Scientist.
     
    #51     Sep 15, 2003
  2. True.

    For the sake of the continuity of this thread, please make additions in a new thread. Thanks.
     
    #52     Sep 15, 2003
  3. Cutten

    Cutten

    In my experience, the opportunity cost of experimenting with small size is far outweighed by the profits which accrue once one develops the ability to let winners run.
     
    #53     Sep 15, 2003
  4. It might even turn out to be a ratio. Say, like a cost to benefit ratio.

    It's never easy to go cold turkey but it is worth trying.

    I looked over the comments here on the range of abilities to let winners run.

    Some of the connections people make are startling. The disconnecting effort is much more fruitful.

    Before entry there are so many items on the table. That is the necessary situation for most people to enter.

    After entry is done; they go along carrying all those items with them. Do any of them matter? Why? What to they contribute?


    What does matter after the designated entry? Protection, of course.

    The considerations that definitely disappear in the picture is all the R/R stuff. Execution to enter for me is a four part deal; two parts intellect; two parts emotional.

    After entry everything chnages in a big deal way. I have only one task: making money.

    There is no change in the emotional parts of what I do after I am in a trade. On the other hand the first two parts, the intellectual data gathering and analysis have absolutely nothing to do with the intellectual data gathering or analysis for entry. I just do not use that information any more.
    Most people here do, however. I see that they emphasze the following:

    Target
    entry value
    when the entry occured

    They tend to not gather data and analyze it.

    Instead they deal with the emotional aspects of execution. Just the last two parts; making decisions and taking actions.

    Emotions rise, assessing profit level (a singular look at one item in the market's movement), and acting vis a vis the pending target (using non market data (you thought up the target value) to end the trading activity. It looks like ending the risk is paramount and preserving the profit is next in importance.

    Looks at changes people consider and act upon:

    1. Saying that letting _______ride is a good idea. That is simply not considering time in a way that disconnect a person from the entry. Not sitting in a place where the longer the clock is running, the greater cause for concern about __________.

    2. Taking P/L out of the picture. This is even more emphatic than just changing the screen. It is a NLP picture change, i.e.,being able to "see" something else since a NLP concern is no longer there.

    3. Looking at what is left to consider. This is a change that is still "in the box". the target stuff is still there and a prevant focal point. Getting to the target is an essential undertaking. But is it an essential consideration? It must be because it is a major basis of the set up. Is that true?

    To be able to step out of the setup defined box is tough. It is called experimenting here. You experiment to find out________. well to find out how to make more money.

    there is only one way to make more money on a defined set up strategy. you need to break through to having a comprehensive way tio monitor the market when you are in it and base everything on what is really going on, in fact. taking out the number you thought up does clear the way to look at the numbers being givine you. One person said "I look at volume" another said "I don't have volume". this mens people are seeking something. You have a lot of somethings. If you design slowly several ways to use what is there, you get to have not only a set up to entry but a method to make money after the entry that is not based on what you thought up to enter.

    What replaces targets is what is going on. "if it isn't busted, dont fix it" Is the first observable and relaxing monitoring skill to deploy. the second one is a retake on one you use already. simply pretend you are entering NOW and set a new stop for the price the market has moved to since "nothing is busted in the scene you see. As long as "Nothing is busted" keeps showing up you setup is still functional right Now for and entry and the "target" you would think up for the entery has also moved on out ahead.

    All that has changed is this: you continue to look at the market as a continuing possible set up and periodically move your self along to where the market now is instead of sitting there tied to your initial entry and all it fixes in your mind.

    Another MAJOR MAJOR thing has happened too. for sure thecost to benefit to finding this thing out has not had a payoff as yet.

    Like it or not here it is and it will take you to place that you can never ever extract yourself from again. you are screwed vis avis maintaining your complacency. funky wants more places to trade. This alone "fixes" him forever if he reads it.

    Here is what also happens as you do the stuff above.

    YOU SEE IN ONE OF YOUR DATA GATHRINGS AND ANALYSISES OF YOUR SET UP THAT ITDOES NOT WORK. As you read you absolutely know this is true. What you just found out is approximately the REAL target you guess all along. Well what the hell use it this time.

    Once you get this point I am making straight, you make a lot more money. You also get the right to look at other set ups and see that they all can be prolonged the same way.

    Granted the screws everthing else up too. you can now scale in at no greater risk when the market continues to noe be busted. you simply calculate the amount of profit you lock in in sucessive replay of your set up and get it in the market. gradually you will also see that scaling out is not there to think about since now you have a way of continually refreshing your set up conditions.

    i know this post expands the concept of edge trading a great deal and so far ET has never seen this kind of enhancement because of the tradition of R/R equals ?? and stops are set by a thud it's done once and for all approach.

    It is a good idea once in a while to push people past where they hang out.
     
    #54     Sep 15, 2003
  5. IN2WIN

    IN2WIN

    Consider yourself very fortunate, most people who trade from emotion ARE losing, or have lost ti all!

    I believe we each have our own "comfort zone" mine is small on the losing side, so I worked at system that could produce consistent profitability and never go more than -10 ES points. Never more than 3 on single trade and usually not over 2.50 (typically 1.25 to 1.75, or B/E) unless the bar reverses so fast, I can't get the stop moved.

    That did eliminate my "fear". It also meant that I had to "settle" for multiple small gains, typically 2.50 to 4.00 pt profits.

    Sometimes in a strong trend in the first or last 90 minutes I let a trade run, but move my stop to +2.50, and most often find that I settle on some bounce with maybe 3 points.

    Rarely, do I get that run I "know" is here! In the past I let it bounce - sometime back to net loser, but I realized that there is a great truth in the statement: "No one ever went broke taking profits."

    Best of Luck
    IN2WIN
     
    #55     Oct 4, 2003
  6. In the past I let it bounce - sometime back to net loser, but
    I realized that there is a great truth in the statement:
    "No one ever went broke taking profits."


    My thoughts exactly, but also one of the things that puzzle me greatly: finding the right balance between taking your profit but also letting the market run.

    My own approach to this, whether good or bad, is to bring up my exit stop after a certain amount of profit is reached (for me 300$ or 40 YM pts) which is my target for each trade. This way I secure my profit.

    After that, I put an automatic trailing stop and let the market run. Most of the times I get taken out at my profit target, but some times I make 1.5x or 2x my usual profit, especially in explosive moves. This is where I find the trailing stop helps, it allows you to follow this expansion bars, but takes you out once the market reverses.

    Great post, nice thread.

    T
     
    #56     Oct 5, 2003