Fear and delusion

Discussion in 'Trading' started by joe4422, Feb 17, 2010.

  1. Cheers.

    Thanks for making my point.

    It is important to recognize the number and magnitude of the profit segments in a day.

    [​IMG]

    The poster noted a net of 12 points per contract and he noted the daily range to be 11.75. The number of trades compared to the number of segments makes things faily clear.

    As profits are applied from available segments, positions grow.

    In turn, for any life style, the costs are static past the knee of the curve.

    QED.
     
    #131     Oct 25, 2010
  2. Thanks for the artwork but I would like to keep my charts simple and trading profitable.

    Cheers,
    Max
     
    #132     Oct 26, 2010
  3. The simple and profitable approach for charts is to use lists.

    Just let the list give you a signal and go to a P, V chart and carve the turns by visual observation.

    Use this one pager with a selective universe.

    Neat and simple.

    PVT trading ranges from 40 to 100 turns a year all at about 10% plus. Cutting the hold time to make the turn is where becoming efficient and effective lies.


    fear and deulsion are common myths encountered by those learning repeated failure.

    I hope you meet your future goals.
     
    #133     Oct 26, 2010
  4. piezoe

    piezoe

    Oops, Barf!
     
    #134     Oct 26, 2010
  5. Cheese

    Cheese

    Grob (Hershey) wouldn’t know. The audience at ET is made up of learning amateurs; for anyone of them to make himself or herself rich from trading, that would indeed be their ultimate prize.

    While uncomplicated trading is the norm for myself and others, can it be that Grob has stumbled upon it? But what on earth will he do with his vast and complex system? It includes MACD, stochastic, channels with lines going everywhere, stretch and squeeze, dominant and non-dominant mistresses, DOM, sentiment, seemingly on and on, almost everything except the kitchen sink and not forgetting the erratic contribution of raw volume, his most beloved component of all.

    LOL.
    :)
     
    #135     Oct 30, 2010
  6. joe4422

    joe4422


    But you're bankrupt and have made no money in your trading over the years.
     
    #136     Oct 30, 2010
  7. The heart of any con (big or small) is almost always that you will get something for nothing if you just put up some money or valuables now.......

    There are in fact lots and lots of good teachers out there, but it would seem there are more cons by number.

    Basic education about stocks and trading is available at your local barnes and nobles. You want to know how to make money..... read William O'Neal or the like. You want to waste money ..... let some hot shot on the net talk you into up fronting $500.... or $6500...

    There is no substitute for hard work.

    Today is Sunday, I will spend at least four hours going through charts and news to decide if I think the market is bullish for this coming week. No guarantees ..... just my opinion.... just for me. It is work....

    Jacob
    :)
     
    #137     Oct 31, 2010
  8. great humor.

    Do a little research and check out the SEC citations and their retractions.

    Secondly, do some class actions research and get the court findings.

    Read my depositions regarding the fines MLPF&B incurred for their embellishments of thier recommendations based on coattial trading my POA accounts.

    See if you can reason your way to a couple of conclusions that make your comments pure and utter bullshit, as usual.
     
    #138     Oct 31, 2010

  9. There are many many ways of trading successfully. a lot of expert traders are familiar with the plans, strategies, and routines used by a full range of such successful traders. My posts make it possible to compare and contrast any of the features of these assorted approaches.

    Obviously, I fit into the category of not publishing my more expert and refined approaches. This happens to be the convention of almost all expert traders and organizations.

    While the SEC may have cited me repeatedly for insider trading, all they really learned was that their monitoring computers were not up to the task of differentiating whether a trader was skilled or was cheating.

    Some traders reach a point of learning and practicing a given level of trading that can support some lifestyle. This is ordinarily called "full time trading". The level of such trading is about advanced beginner or intermediate.

    Taking the market's offer has little to do with the list above cited by the poster. Being effective and efficient is what allows for extracting the market's offer.

    Exit/entry probabilistic trading has never been effective nor efficient. At some point it may be noticed that ET does not have any forums on math or effectiveness or efficiency.

    The key issues for making money devolve around sufficiency, certainty, capacity, and trading multiples of capacity, an the extent of application of capital.

    Vast and complex?

    What gives with this mediocre judgement?

    Making money is a systemmic trading matter.

    Thinking that markets gives signals is a product of studying history in a liberal arts regime. Aggregating vast collections of data is how nature makes mud and clay and puts into into sedimentary layers.

    The onus on the dedicated expert is to model, develop, and hone in an exact science schema. The ONLY thing available in markets for making money is the PRESENT and the only way to get money out of markets is to extract it in segments as the market's offer acculmulates and concludes periodically.

    When 6 to 8 degrees of freedom of raw data are involved, their information content is expanded to 70 degrees or so. AT THAT POINT an only at that point is the market participant able to take the measure of the market with precision and repeatability and reliability.

    Markets are systems and they are dynamic and huge. There is no doubt whatsoever that with a full set of degrees of freedom, as time passes, the correct subset and the correct focus IS THE ONLY WAY to acheive systematic extraction effectiveness and efficiency.

    Behavioral finance HAS MEASURED THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PARTICIPANTS FULLY. Read the overview of what is at hand. (Go to the site and read BF or BS?) As stated there, all market events fall into two categories and every event has a precedent and post event context. Logic dictates that these nodes ARE ABSOLUTELY LINKED to one another and each event is defined by three time based factors in an order.

    Here is what happened over centuries of market operation.

    1. Raw data was communicated.

    2. Enhancement of data occurred by an order of magnitude. (70 degrees of freedom of descrete measurable high utility data)

    3. Entry/exit trading based on market generated signals was discarded by those oreinted to effectivenss and efficiency.

    4. Efficient and effective market participation became based on continuous participation using hold/reversal planning, strategies, and routines.

    5. Extraction of the market's offer is the basis of optimization, effectiveness and efficiency.

    Check around the webb and determine that most of the efforts regarding measurement, optimization effectiveness and efficiency are not encountered in any probabilistic market orientation which has as a standard the continuing market's measured offer.
     
    #139     Oct 31, 2010
  10. Cheese

    Cheese

    Grob (Jack Hershey) promoted a trading system of 3 layers- coarse (eg MACD, stocastic) medium (presumably volume) and fine (eg DOM). That is the list to which he is referring. It would therefore appear he is now choosing to disavow those components or discount them. If so I have no objection.

    It also appears that his favored descriptions have moved somewhat; they have become market sentiment, market dominance, market direction, market momentum, the rate of change of momentum - all vague in that anyone else too might use generalised descriptions.

    For individual amateur traders, futures market are best exploited by taking as much as they can from the sequential swings that make up the daily gyrations of a market (eg CL). That at core is the most effective aim for the learning amateur with limited capital.

    As to the whole of Grob's previous post in this thread he didn't disclose anything I don't already know. But he is an Australian amateur, with no corporate and professional background in markets, who has a disconnect as to what happens and what has happened inside investment banks, funds and institutions in their trading calculations and policies when playing in the markets. He wouldn't know.
    LOL.
    :)
     
    #140     Nov 6, 2010