FCS is trading $12.38, up 2.3% with IV30⢠up 9.3%. The <a href="http://www.livevol.com/">LIVEVOL⢠Pro Summary</a> is <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html">in the article</a>. <img src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/fcs_summary.gif" /> ------------------------------------------------------------------- <a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/free_trial.html"><img height="200" src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/lvp_trial_ad.gif" /></a> For a limited time we are offering a FREE real-time trial to Livevol Pro⢠for non-professional traders. You can get your trial by following the directions here: <b><a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/free_trial.html">Click for Free Trial Offer</a></b> ------------------------------------------------------------------- The company has traded over 5,500 options on total daily average option volume of just 508. Only 12 of the contracts have been calls, yielding a 460:1 put:call ratio. It's the Dec 11 and 12 puts that are trading. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html">in the article</a>). The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the puts are mostly opening (compare OI to trade size). When looking down the entire option chain for FCS, I don't see any OI larger than 2,141, so the Dec 11 put volume is very large. The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html">in the article</a>) illustrates the vols by strike by month. I like this chart - we can see the Dec downside has spiked past the Feb'11 downside on the 11 strike. The vol adjustment makes sense, but might yield a trading opportunity. It's common for Dec vol to be below a back month (seasonal vol phenomenon), but this change in skew breaks the term-structure pattern. Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html">in the article</a>. The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30⢠- red vs HV20⢠- blue vs HV180⢠- pink). <img src="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/images/blog/fcs_charts.gif" width="600" /> We can see the stock rise then small dip. What I see is the IV30⢠popping past both the short-term (HV20â¢) realized and the long-term realized (HV180â¢). Note that this is only a $12 stock, so it can only go down $12... if you know what I mean... Right now the vols are: IV30â¢: 48 HV20â¢: 32 HV180â¢: 45 It feels like 50 vol or higher is around where a vol sale starts to become enticing. <b>Possible Trades to Analyze</b> 1. Nice and simple: Buy the Feb/Dec 11 put spread and pay $0.40 if possible. 2. For you risk lovers, sell the Dec 11 puts naked @ $0.30 if possible (there is a lot of liquidity at that price). That's 56 vol. Maybe try to sneak a $0.10 bid in the Dec puts to cover - receive $0.20 total. Note though, the MaxGain:MaxLoss ratio is 1:5. This is trade analysis, not a recommendation. <b>Follow Live Trades and Order Flow on Twitter: @Livevol_Pro</b> Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here: <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html">http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/11/fcs.html</a> Legal Stuff: <a href="http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html">http://www.livevolpro.com/help/disclaimer_legal.html</a>
lol, no I dont know what you mean, if the stock goes to $5 then you will sit on your short vol position with a negative 15-20 vol points. Since when does it matter at what absolute price levels a stock trades????