FB support at 50% of IPO price?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by nillionaire, Aug 18, 2012.

  1. GTS

    GTS

    :confused:
     
    #11     Aug 19, 2012
  2. +1 no idea....
     
    #13     Aug 19, 2012
  3. #14     Aug 19, 2012
  4. hitnrun

    hitnrun

    probably a $ 15.00 stock within a few weeks , no one wants it
     
    #15     Aug 19, 2012
  5. Hope so; I have alot of bets on this with a few people online and about 11 other people I know. 10 thought FB was the tits. 5 thought it was a 'shit-show' stock.

    Some people thought I was full of shit and 1 or 2 believed (and put their money short) FB was a sub $10.00 stock before it stabilizes for the longer term.

    I did some work on FB natal date--using techniques I learned from Myles Wilson Walker 10+ years ago vs several other successful IPO's in the last 7+years when I came up with $15.00 and change by mid November '12.

    FB decline has accelerated quicker than I anticipated. I believe a 78.6% haircut from its high is 'do-able' by mid November. That would mean it touches sub $10.00 (may not close below their though).

    I settled on mid $15.00's for several wagers. Broader market is doing its final rally into fall/early fall~~FB exhibits none of those characteristics as of yet.

    I prefer FB to tumble into near year-end and then the real trading swings will be good (my opinion). I want to trade FB with weekly options (a new trading technique of mine--weekly options).

    Blowing through $20 before Labor Day (to me) implies further weakside pressure. Acceleration of downtrend.
    -------------------------------
    06-04-12 03:42 PM

    Quote from stephan31:

    FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').

    I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--

    Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.

    My guesses were/are

    1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
    2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.

    By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.

    peace

    hedvig
     
    #16     Aug 19, 2012
  6. Its a $5 stock. Never trade against the trend. You are gambling.
     
    #17     Aug 19, 2012

  7. So far it looks like you called it nillionaire.
    :cool:

    I still don't get the rationale behind the trade, but the numbers and price action don't lie.
    This guy agrees with you too:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/

    Are you gonna take the profits and run, or hold on for more?
     
    #18     Aug 20, 2012
  8. From an FT Article today:

    Short interest in Facebook was hovering near record levels on Monday with investors having borrowed some 83 per cent of the 80.4m shares available for lending, according to data provider Markit.

    That means 4.6 per cent of the publicly available shares in the company are now being held by investors betting on a further fall in the company’s share price.

    The cost of borrowing shares has also continued to rise, making it more expensive to place shorts. “Once more than half the shares in lending programmes get borrowed, people generally charge more to borrow shares because of supply and demand in the market,” said Simon Colvin at Markit.

    How many of these shorts are weak hands, looks like the weakest of them are already exiting. They will gun for these guys who sold as it broke $20 and try to push it in their face now.
     
    #19     Aug 20, 2012
  9. Gonna let this winner run!
     
    #20     Aug 20, 2012