FB support at 50% of IPO price?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by nillionaire, Aug 18, 2012.

  1. I went long FB at 19.08 today and am holding over the weekend. A second straight close near the day's low is a bit concerning, but I wonder if that means Monday's close is likelier to be near the high?

    Anyway I do find it interesting it showed strong support at 19, which is 50% of the IPO price. I looked at similar stocks to see how they reacted once they dropped around 50% of their IPO price:

    ZNGA priced at 10, then dropped down to 4.78 (a 52% drop), and then bounced up to 6.35 (a 33% rise).

    GRPN priced at 20, then dropped down to 9.63 (a 52% drop), and then bounced up to 14.93 (a 55% rise).

    P priced at 16, then dropped down to 7.83 (a 51% drop), and then bounced up to 12.3 (a 57% rise).

    I checked a few other stocks like LNKD, YELP, and Z, but those never dropped under their IPO price.

    Hopefully this pattern continues with FB as well and it bounces from here into the mid-20s.
  2. ... and were are GRPN and ZNGA today?

    Considering the Locked out Shares most likely weren't put on the market the first day an enormous unknown exists.

    Weekend long on such a volatile and uncertain stock is pure gambling/speculation, Risk mgmt is Nil....
  3. KeLo


    I prefer to go long on stocks in an uptrend, rather than a downtrend. I wish you good luck.

  4. It's good you're looking for patterns, but a support level needs to be longer than 1 day.
    In FB's short life, I've seen 3 sideways channels which could be called support levels.
    They're marked on the attached chart at around 31 (lasted 18 days), 28 (lasted 8 days), and 20 (lasted 10 days).
    The 20 level gave way on Thursday, and there hasn't been time for a new support level to form yet at 19.
    Even if a support level forms at 19, there's not been any pattern of FB rallying off of these past levels.
    All FB has done is pause for a while, and then break down through them to go lower.
    You are betting against FB's "long term" Trend, which is DOWN!
    The odds are way against you.
    SELL on Monday!


    Here's a good recent article about FB's pricing:

  5. Yeah I see the long term trend - this trade isn't meant to be held for more than a few days.

    If 19 doesn't hold, then the trendline suggests that 18 may provide some support. Although I'll probably close if it breaks 19.
  6. blnbr


    They said FB would not fall below 4 bucks ;)
  7. S2007S


    FB is going under 10, remember the hype behind this stock, it was all a joke to get the little guys in and get the big guys out, thats the usual wallstreet game.

    FB under $10, in years to come it will be the myspace of today...
  8. It "works" when it works and doesn't when it doesn't. We'll see very soon. :cool:
  9. What will be the "next" FaceBook? :confused: :cool: :p :D
  10. facebook is an excellent sell candidate.

    fundementally, facebook's business is not like originally thought sexy, we all know their revuene are from commercial ads. but it is losing its comstomer bases. I did not join facebook, one concern to me: they store your personal information, and you lost control of it. this is not sexy. recently saw a abc reporting, a 45+ old lady used her daughter pictures to hook a 45 old man (this guy also cheated claim him as a 20 somthing young guy used 20 yrs ago photos), and two high schoolers (one of the schooler is honest, tell everything about him, but another one use fake name/address), when the old lady said to bye bye to one of the high schoolers (the guy used fake name) and the old guy to meet the schooler who use true info., and the old man, the unhonest schooler, feel jealous about the schooler, got a gun, stalled at the meeting place, shoot dead the schooler used true name on a parking lot. while the old lady just pretend to meet, she did not show up really...

    plus, smart phones are booming, and other new technologies are coming, giants like apple and google can easily force facebook out of business.

    that is why facebook's busnness model has serious flaws. wall street knows it, they are not stupid.

    actually I am considering selling FB. technically it is a strong sell. fundementally I do not know, just some common sense anlysis.

    19 will fall, when you look back if you stand on the point of 8/24, or 9/XX, or 10/XX....

    support can become resistenace if it broke. I am buying apple and csco, google.

    I feel you are an amateur, or novice. so I give my two cents here.
    #10     Aug 19, 2012