my target near term.. 18-16... gonna try to find a way to trade the downside.. instead of just talk sh**t
I think facebook doesnt have as many users as they say. Hell, I have created about 7 FB accounts for different reasons over the years and I know plenty of others that have done the same. I would say facebook probably has about 300 million REAL non-duplicate users at most.
Yeah I created a FB page for my dog and I know there are a lot of other dogs, cats, parrots, etc with FB accounts. Maybe they can find a way to generate ad revenue from non-human users.
yeah most cockroaches in NYC have accounts too. it looks like there is only a handful of humans signed up there.
on a serious note, i believe fb board will agree to an offer to be acquired in the next two to three years by an IT major, i.e. apple, ibm, msft, orcl or goog. most probably, price will be in the $10s area because the company still has a rich valuation now and they don't have any substantial growth potential going forward, given their business model. as far as the user base is concerned, they already reached a plateau from which there isn't room for exponential growth anymore, just incremental improvements. fb should have came up with a subscription fee while they were the undisputed leader in the field w/o competition from any major, i.e. google. they could have asked like $10 per mo per user in 2009 or so, which would have lead to revenues above $100B per year in foreseeable future, given the lack of alternatives users had back then, like either your were on FB or you were dead. but, instead, they allowed google to build up a competing offer for free and now they're stucked with an inefficient business model, while they've already reached important economies of scale, that haven't impacted the bottom line. in sum, fb is very valuable, but not for the actual shareholders, but rather, for the IT majors lurking out there, which at the right time, will put up a fight to grab FB business. but, when that happens, the stock will be trading sub $10, so the final agreed price should be in the $10-$20 area, IMO.
That's a pretty good look..... all that sounds right on... its adrift in mixed emotions right now and the market hates uncertainty..
unless you have some inside information, this is pure speculation not that there's anything wrong with that, I'm sure I do it myself at times, but really believing it is something else... marc
Disagree with this part. FB wouldn't be able to get 100M users, let alone 1B, if they charged $10/month, or even $1/month. Everyone would have gone back to MySpace.