Jack would draw a lot less flak if he said low risk instead of no risk but Jack is Jack. There are certainly times that an entry is very low risk but it involves the ability to extract oneself quickly when neccessary and knowing when to do so. When your right the gains are disproportionately large compared to the risk involved. This is my experience. One thing Im curious about is that he has said numerous times that he mentors people and guarantees their account against loss yet I have never seen one person on here in the last four years that has said they asked him to do so. Curious indeed. Seems like a hell of a deal to me. It illustrates, to me, how many people have their minds closed from the gitgo.
WATCH THE GUY NAMED BUZZ......HE AIN'T ALWAYS BUZZ........WILL TRY TO SLIP IN ON YOU AND EXTRACT THE GOODIES, WHILE IMPERSONATING ANOTHER.......
Jack Hershey aka Grob109 divides the ET audience into an "A" team and a "B" team. Only the "A" team resonates with what he is saying and vice versa. The A team watches movies like "What the Bleep do we know?". It shows the power of magical thinking with items such as microscopic photography of ice crystals of sewage water which has been subjected to cursing compared to ice crystals of Evian subjected to expressions of love. You can see how much prettier the love water crystals are hence magical thinking is REAL! The B team watches ultimate fighting. Grob claims he has worked in the Carter administration which fits in nicely with an A team inclination. The A team drives hybrids and wants more mass transportation. The B team wants more well drilling to fuel up the Hummer. B teamers are either white supremacist skin head nazis or worse, Republicans. The A team has a Mommy oreintation contrasted to the B team Daddy orientation. The A team believe they can connect up to the Mommy market nipple and suckle away. The B team believes they must "trade right" or Daddy market will "spank" them. So when it comes down to analyzing Grob109 market theories you first need to decide if you are an A team player or a B team player. To help you make the correct choice of your team I have put forth the following list of A team and B team characteristics A Team....................................B Team Barbara Streisand.......................Bon Jovi Prius........................................Corvette Carter......................................Reagan Welfare & Social Justice..............Social Darwinism Majik........................................Science New Age...................................Holiday Protestant Universal blessings......................Hard earned profits Batik.........................................Dockers Subjective reality.......................Objective reality Baba Ram Dass..........................Amazing Randi Mommy government....................Daddy government Postdictive analysis.....................Backtesting
lol. Yet another incarnation. You must be closing in on the record for different email addresses and ET aliases.
We are disconnected for many reasons. That is fine and makes any reply I do less demanding of being considerate. No risk means certainty is something everyone from a certain age understands completely. You are always going to have to be "right". You express how right you are about the topic you are discussing. I am, however, discussing something that you do not "get". If I suggest, and you read, that I support others in "getting" that trading takes place in the NOW and the NOW only, all of what you are talking about is not on the table. Let me put it another way. What you are talking about is OFF the table and there is now place to even put it on the table. So try, for a moment to consider just for a while to consider something and then throw it in your garbage can. I do not want you to do anything more than reject, yet once again, what I say. Risk can be considered what you make of it. The market risk and the trader risk may be looked at. Just looked at. It will always be uncertain to you what is going on. You always have uncertainties on your plate. But there are other people than you and they can do what they want. I am interested in a lot of people getting rich. I have one simple goal in my life. This is a selfish statement. I have figured out that if people have surplus capital they are in a position to help others out by using their talents over time to fix stuff that is busted. This orientation that I have is foreign to you. And I will never know how you operate with respect to this kind of thing. To achieve my selfish interests I have to guard against Village Idiots who may misinterpret my suggestions for getting rich as fast as possible. I find that when I coach a person for 6 1/2 hours a day until he makes double his intial capital, that I have achieved a personal goal under the precise conditions that, I using my messeniac mein as you escribe it, get the most bang for the buck. You cannot picture what it is like for a person to commit to letting me pay for his mistakes. He is under the gun to "get it right". I am making sure he does not step out of line one inch at any time with regard to building his knowledge, skills and experience. He is a "top gun" from the moment he begins to the day he finally turns stuff over to a successor in his life time. By not having any trader risk (financially speaking and only financially speaking, he is able to BUILD RAPIDLY the necessary foundation. You are one of the most persistent believers in that people cannot take the potential the market offers out of the market. That is the way it is for you. You are a champion at being "right" and have no understanding, knowledge, skills or experience at really making a hell of a lot of money fast. I once posted (for the benefit of others) a print and record of a beginners who made 17 points one day on ES. A local turd here at ET explain to ET that I used a software package to FAKE this beginner's results. I didn't. the beginner didn't. This asshole, however, knew I faked it; knew the software (he was familiar with it and I never heard of it) I must have used and he felt obligated to expose this traversty I was commiting on the members of ET. All this is okay to do in ET. And it is not okay for him to call me an asshole. Past tense of asshole is turd as you probably know. A beginner can and did make 17 points one day past. He was under pressure to make points to meet one goal: to take out of the market the potential it offers when and how it is offered. Now we have reached to place where I can make a point. What is the risk of dealing only with NOW (this is a word that describes the present) to extract what the market is offering NOW to the trader. It is my contention that if something is offered that it may be taken. There is a taking. In legal parlance "taking" is often associated with land deals and the inherent value that could be lost by the action of non owners or the community's actions with respect to the neighborhood. Compensation is often awared for "takings". I am an environmentalist so I run into this occassionally. A trader is sitting in NOW and viewing an offering. If the trader is able to "see" the offering, then hee is able to accept it as a consequence of a consideration. The consideration is something that has value and the value is mutually determined. I am a mentor "working" with a beginner under agreement. This is a temporary change of subject; "get it". The confluence of each of the two paragraphs above, is causal. The "work" to ID the offering is valuable. It, because it can be repeated ad nauseum as a learned pragmatic application, has superior value based upon converting the future value to the present. Applying the response to the recognition of the offer, secures the offer and further enhances the value of the "work" because the "work"'s value is made manifest by it's successful utilization. What you are reading is that there are more considerations than you will ever know or understand when it comes to formulationg the components and the relationships of them to the total risk. When I lecture on the theory of learning to faculties, doctoral candidates and post doctoral reaserch folks at their request and for honorariums, they get their money's worth. You are never going to be in such an audience. When the beginner passes forward what he learned during conditions of market offerings at NOW, he learns more and better what is at hand during NOW. you deal with risk as a element involving the future; I do not. Those I support and assist do not after a while. They "get it". This is not foreign territory for them. No risk from a market viewpoint means limiting dealing with the market to just and only NOW. No risk for a trader means that I am writing the check for losses, if any, that are incurred. No risk trading is the appropriate beginner level trading that allows the mind to be built fast and at a ratecof trading all day long every day. there is a certainty that occurs as a person learns to stay on the right side of the market. The right side of the market changes 20 to 40 times a day on the 5 minutes charts which have 81 bars to show for a day. So my emphasis for traders is knowing that he is on the right side of the market during NOW and NOW only. To that end I deal primarily with "continuation" and "change". All of this is foreign to you and you are a non natural trader so anything that follows natural kinds of lwas are foreign to you. You have for one long time made it you busioness to creep and crawl further and further way from nature by being "right" all the time. It is not a good idea foir you at this point in your life to change your ways; it would be very unsettling for you. What you get from me, however, is just momentary looks at what the world is like for a person who has different goals and standards and objectives. I don't spend much time with your kind of people; it is not productive for my goals.
GROB, the emotional capital u waste with these people is not worth it unless you have an unusual taste for strange entertainment......... i for one wholeheartedly agree with what you are saying.......the no risk is virtually there many times a day........i trade ym only but all emini's offer these same opportunity............i have a mechanical system that identifies the "right now" entry signal.........not hurry up and do it at t his moment th ing but here it is what is the holdup puPUSH THE BUTTON DUMMY.........THE PICTURE U R STARING AT THIS VERY MOMENT IS THE PERFECT LOW/NO RISK PICTURE THAT U DESIGNED ME TO SLAP YOUR FACE "RIGHT NOW" AND SAY "PORGIE, ENTER NOW STUPID"............EVEN THE STOPS ARE DEFAULT SET EACH TRADE WITH A NO RISK STOP BASED ON THE LAST 75 TRADES BEING 100%........HOW IS THAT A RISK.......CAN IT FAIL? OF COURSE IT CAN.......WILL IT FAIL? EXTREMELY UNLIKELY, CREATING THE NO RISK , NOT JUST LOW RISK.......I DON'T DEAL IN LOW RISK, I DEAL IN MINISCULE RISK.........AND THA T FOR ME IS NO RISK..OR NOT ENOUGH TO MEASURE SO IT COMES OUT NO.....RISK............INTRADAY YM SEVERAL TRADES EACH DAY FOR WHATEVER POINTS THE SYSTEM TELLS ME TO CAPTURE............NO RISK TRADING IS FOR ME AGAIN, TEENY WEENY LOSS AND VERY RARE.........BELIEVE IT OR NOT, WHO CARES... .......SOME MYTHS PORGIE DOESN'T BUY VOLUME READING IS NECESSARY BAR NOISE IS FOR REAL MA'S DON'T WORK MA'S ARE LAGGING TRENDS DON'T HELP DISCRETIONARY IS GOOD CHARTS UNDER 10 MINS ARE NOT CRAP ANY AND I MEAN ANY NEWS IS NEEDED THINK AHEAD FOR TRADES TRADE OVERNIGHT P;OSITIONS LOW % SYSTEMS ARE GOOD IF MANAGED MARKET KNOWLEDGE IS MORE IS BETTER WATCH OT HER MARKET S FOR YOUR TRADES T HE ABOVE STUFF IS WHY VERY FEW ARE SUCCESSFUL IN THIS BUSINESS...........I TRADE YM INTRADAY ONLY BUT ALL EMINI'S T HE SAME TRADING IF U KNOW HOW TO TRADE A GOOD SYSTEM
Deliciously entertaining as the diatribes/dialogues between A team and B team are, the fact is that they are repeated almost verbatim once every six months as an old cadre of sycophants slinks away and a new cadre innocently sallies forth on the latest Children's Crusade. Jack's assertions are simply that. They are not amenable to proof a posteriori, and he offers no predictions in real time, even though that is easy to do (I have done it) and it would humiliate and silence his critics. While I can accept that Jack may have inspired some here to make money because the study of him is heuristic, I do not recall that anyone here claims to have gotten rich following Jack to the letter. Best regards to the B team.
THOUGH I CAN'T SPEAK A S ELOQUENTLY AS PREVIOUS POSTER HIS USE OF THE WORD "PREDICTION" PLACES HIM SQUARELY ON THE LOSING TEAM.......IF U R DAYTRADING EMINI'S AND U PREDICT INSTEAD OF SYSTEM GIVING RIGHT NOW ENTRIES UR LAST STOP LOSS WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY .........
keltner bands help me in a choppy environment. But throw it out when the trend breaks out. I search for previous narrow bands of support and resistence to turn Keltner on during non-fed chairman day's. (secret...just before non fed chairman announcments the market likes keltner, because all the traders that matter and that can move the market, are waiting Wifey)
Your second paragraph is a good idea as a component of your thinking. There is another avuenue, however. I point it out as something to not concern yourself with, however. It is an avenue that may be useful to others. To attain effectiveness and efficiency in extracting what the market offers requires less effort that continually completing the process of assigning risk in your wolrd of trading. All strategies for optimization involve this main theme: minimizing risk. How can the two risks of trading (market and trader) be minimized? Market risk is minimized by better "knowing" the markets. Yesterday, elsewhere someone suggested that it may just be a matter of cogently watching the markets for 10,000 hours or so (he did it). Why would a person who has doubled under no risk conditions ever leave that arena. One reason is that I no longer guarantee losses as an incentive to that person to repeat the identical doubling under those conditions (they do it faster than first time). The singular reason is that it is important to use all the time the market is open to use it to make money. so the optimizing goal is to always be in the market and to minimize risk at all times. The only risk dtermination that needs to be made is: am I on the right side of the market? high risk occurs when the correct side of the market cannot be stated during NOW. I feel that this is a problem determined by differential analysis. I feel that it is best down using several fractals concurrently and making a "go/nogo" determination. This is a foreign concept to you, I am sure. And you will reject it either by considering it or not considering it. So we have that out of the way right off and do not have to go into how this is done. The right space on the chart where annotated projections are made for the future to move into the present (NOW) is a good place to consider for minimizing risk. It is a moving futures risk map that is totally unuseful, strategically, until it moves into the present(NOW). Projections are continually refined using the present. That is going on. The coarse, medium and fine of sweeps ilustrate the NOW risk minimization at its best. It is a nine table go/no go complex. Go is written as "continue" nogo is written as "change". These are not opposites since making money involves continuing to stay in the market and on the right side of the makrket all the time. Risk could be considered to be rising and falling as time passes. The major major exception is that we have two avenues to minimize risk and we have the ability to continually apply risk minimization. It is obvious that the sweeps are designed to take a person to the market place to use the trader skill to handle the risk issue. Knowledge handles market risk and skills handles tradr risk. If they are present then the trade makes money; if they aren't present then effort is made once to eliminate the void. this strategy of learning knowledge and/or skills to deal with voids is a way to not have risk present or when it is there to eliminate it for the net time. the sweeps chart is a very functional element of one of four parts of trading; the monitoring function. The other three, in sequence are : analysis, decision making; and taking timely actions. How does risk fit in these places. Well the monitoring only collects the correct data set. Analysis is where the determination is made as to what NOW holds. NOW is where you are on the right side of the market. If you are then you are prepared to continue to take 100% of what the market is offering based upon your participation. Is participation a risk place? The vaste majority calculate risk as a spcetrum in a market where the only issue is the risk of being on the wrong side of the market (this is always a known it turns out). Knowns are low risk places. The risk of decision making is twofold: not doing it and doing it wrong. Minimizing this is self evident. Taking timely action, risky? Not at all. You are told by decisions 100% of the time. So it appears that cranking up the speed of laps is called for. Do the four part cycle continually and completed with no sub looping. Logs and debriefing is where the homework assignments come from for the two tasks of gaining more complete market knowledge and gaining appropriate trader skills. So you are hyped still on the mortal and non mortal aspect of all this stuff in your mind. Stay there and play with it. I am oriented to supporting my selfish goals of having the grassroots solve problems locally with money from markets. The way I support this is conveying the learning required in the format of a process. If something is in the space that is a problem, like risk for you, then I recommend the method of using the tools that abound to get the problem out of the picture. Risk for you is ever present and seems to control stuff largely. for me it is caused by the temporary absence of what is eliminating it for others who are further down the path. Invariably, aditional work solves the problem. So what 47 years of working on this stuff leads to is an "unbelievable" place. I'm archiving the work, putting it in forms (multimedia) that afford transferability and setting up a model for learning and crossreferencing to most other mainstream approaches; getting crews to pass it forward and having a repository of successful community problem sloving. You are not going to like anything about all of this; it is "unbelievable". Save yourself a lot of confusion. You know you are right about everything that you come up against and I have been wasting about 50 years in making up this mess you don't see.