You're absolutely right! I shorted at 1054 (pretty close to the Top) and then again at 1052 I believe, but bailed too early. -Fast
random trader, glad to hear your comments! I am trying to do the same thing - pick out reversals using volume as a signal for hysteria. I have also found that this strategy requires wide stops, usually against conventional wisdom - eg 3 pt stp to catch approx 2 pt. I was trading it with erratic results, but soon realized that there were a few exceptions to the set ups that needed to be specified before the system was profitable.
October 30th (Thursday) Followed Trading Plan: Total trades: 19 (16 Shorts, 3 Longs) 12 Winners, 6 Losers, 1 Scratch 6:04 AM - Short 1 ESTX50 2557.00 6:21 AM - Cover 1 ESTX50 2557.00 Result: 0 6:28 AM - Short 1 DAX 3622.00 6:30 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3620.50 Result: +1.50 6:42 AM - Long 1 DAX 3614.50 6:42 AM - Exit 1 DAX 3616.00 Result: +1.50 Notes: Early exit, but I just wasn't sure how much higher it would go. Should have just moved stop up to breakeven + 1 tick and let it run. 6:51 AM - Short 1 DAX 3631.50 6:51 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3635.00 Result: -3.50 7:18 AM - Short 1 DAX 3632.50 7:19 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3632.00 Result: +0.50 7:23 AM - Short 1 ESTX50 2560 7:24 AM - Cover 1 ESTX50 2569 Result: +1 8:07 AM - Short 1 ES 1047.00 8:21 AM - Cover 1 ES 1048.00 Result: -1 8:11 AM - Short 1 DAX 3627.50 8:16 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3627.00 Result: +0.50 Notes: Could have exited a little earlier for a slightly higher gain, but I'm working on my early exit problem and trying to hold a bit longer. 8:25 AM - Short 1 DAX 3635.50 8:26 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3635.00 Result: +0.50 8:27 AM - Short 1 DAX 3640.00 8:29 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3636.00 Result: +4 Notes: I kept lowering my stop-loss on this one instead of exiting. In hindsight, my stop helped me dodge a bullet on this one since the DAX jumped 20+ pts at 8:30 when the GDP number was released. Lesson: ALWAYS use protective stops. 8:43 AM - Short 1 ES 1054.00 8:45 AM - Cover 1 ES 1053.50 Result: +0.50 Notes: Stupid exit! But at the time I was thinking "what if it breaks to new highs"...well, even if it did, it would certainly have retraced back so I should have held on to this one. 9:06 AM - Short 1 DAX 3679.00 9:08 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3682.50 Result: -3.50 Notes: This is where I started hunting for the TOP on DAX. 9:10 AM - Short 1 DAX 3681.00 9:11 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3683.50 Result: -2.50 9:13 AM - Short 1 DAX 3682.50 9:15 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3685.50 Result: -3 9:16 AM - Short 1 DAX 3682.50 9:17 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3687.00 Result: -4.50 9:19 AM - Short 1 DAX 3684.50 9:20 AM - Cover 1 DAX 3683.00 Result: +1.50 Notes: This was the one that I was gonna really bank on but exited early. By now I was pretty messed up psychologically and emotionally from all the losses. 9:30 AM - Short 1 ESTX50 2599.00 9:32 AM - Cover 1 ESTX50 2597.00 Result: +2 Notes: ESTX50 isn't really worth trading on 1-lots. It doesn't move enough. So I will either have to up the size to 2-4 lots or just not trade ESTX50. 9:39 AM - Short 1 ES 1051.50 9:43 AM - Cover 1 ES 1051.00 Result: +0.50 Notes: Any ideas on how I can stick with my trades? 10:26 AM - Long 1 ES 1043.50 10:30 AM - Exit 1 ES 1044.00 Result: +0.50 Overall: ESTX50: +3 DAX: -7 ES: +0.50 Learned a few more lessons today (will these ever end). You know, maintaining a journal makes crappy days like this even crappier since everyone gets to see your $hitty trades
Crappy days are where you really learn. You learn what you did wrong, and, more importantly, you learn about yourself...how you deal with stress, how you cope with adversity, and how you bounce back the next day!! (Hopefully) I've noticed that you've started trading the DAX futures. The speed at which it trades compared to ES is alluring, but be very, very careful. I also see that you are willing to scalp out after just 1 to 1.5 points, when there is the opportunity for much bigger gains in this contract. If you want to trade DAX, you really have to take bigger gains because this futures contract requires at least a 3-point stop to avoid getting stopped out on almost every trade. This is just my opinion, but I feel that unless a person has been able to profitably trade a less-fast market (such as ESTX50 or ES) for at least several months, they're most likely just going to get hurt badly by the DAX. You need to be on the top of your game to trade the DAX futures. Don't misunderstand me; the DAX is a great market to trade, but you just have to be ready for it, that's all. As always, good luck to you. P L J
I see two problems. The smaller one is tight stops. The bigger one is overtrade. Is your goal scalping? If yes, then you shouldn't ask how you can stay in your winning positions longer. If not, then why did you take so many trades? As the number of trades increases, the average quality of entries and exits has to drop. Ask yourself: what is my goal?
Absolutely brilliant piece of advice. Very true indeed! Fast, better leave the DAX alone until you conquered the ES? Scientist.
Watched the DAX this morning but didn't put on any trades. I see a lot of opportunity in the DAX and would like to keep it on the plate. But you're right, it is very risky so I will be putting on more ES trades. DAX is a big mover but not liquid enough. ESTX50 is liquid but doesn't move. I think majority of trades next week will be in ES. I plan on using wider stops on ES to capture larger gains. After looking back at my trades, tight stops are my biggest problem. We'll see how it goes. Only 1 trade in NQ for 2 pts this morning. I was just too tired to trade this AM. Details tonight. -Fast
Well, for me DAX would be much more sensible to trade, time-zone-wise. I still have reasons not to trade that index right now - LOL. I understand the American market internals pretty well, but have little idea about the European ones. After watching the US indexes etc and tapes day in day out for a long time, I got a pretty good feeling for them. In Europe, I'd have to start all over again? There are people who believe the ES are hard enough to conquer, and ES has the finest liquidity, which rocks. Personally, for the benefit of specialization, I'd recommend against actively trading more than one index, particularly beginners. And very particularly DAX. Trust me - I'm German. Scientist.
October 30th (Thursday) Followed Trading Plan: Total trades: 1 (1 Long) 1 Winner, 0 Losers 9:54 AM - Long 1 NQ 1422.00 9:57 AM - Exit 1 NQ 1424.00 Result: +2 Notes: Exited since more news was due at 10:00 AM and did not want to hold into it. Overall: NQ: +2 I was way too tired this morning. I had been up since 5 AM EST and was watching DAX. By the time US opened, I was too sleepy to trade (was on 4 hrs of sleep). Missed more than a few shorting opportunities in ES. Oh well...lets see what next week brings.