hate to sound arrogant....but ET is a great contrarian indicator. besides, the "votes" are coming from who? people posting pnl? doubt it.
another bearish reading = bull market is safe for now Total Votes: 3880 votes 1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish 34.17% 1326 votes Bearish 52.11% 2022 votes Neutral 13.71% 532 votes http://www.thestreet.com/story/10491857/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html
Last week the majority of that poll was correct in general as the market retreated. Therefore, that poll is doubtful as judged by last week as a contrarian indicator.
yes and no: the market was weak but came back to almost break-even (~1% drop for the week). now compare this to the poll that was very bearish (30% bull/58% bear). to me it looks like the folks were expecting a much more bearish action (and were wrong as usual). the latest poll is shaping out similar to the previous one (34%/52%). so i am expecting a positive week. we shall see...
Realmoney published their summary of polling for the last 5 weeks. for some reason they excluded the super-bearish reading on around march 29(see the #s above). actually, it appears that the majority is actually more right than wrong. they missed march-06 bottom, but after that they did quite well. hmm??? who is the dumb money then? http://www.thestreet.com/story/10488249/1/bears-paw-back-in-poll.html the reading for the coming week (they will date it ~Apr-27): Bullish 34.17% 1326 votes Bearish 52.11% 2022 votes Neutral 13.71% 532 votes
This makes perfect sense, and the survey is indeed the public. Do you have the data on the last bear leg (SPY down from 87 to 67 area)?
the latest data i managed to locate dates march-02 (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10482533/1/bears-have-bulls-for-dinner-in-poll.html)
i am starting to think that a significant swine flu news (if any) next week may throw my contrarian thinking based on the bearish poll right into the trash. an example of such news could be the first casualties in the States from the flu and/or a large number of new infections. it is hard to guess how much of this potential negative news is already priced in. so, i think we are going to have an UP week as long as there is NO significant bad news about the flu.
the newest poll is bullish. i will update the numbers as more people vote. http://www.thestreet.com/story/10495315/1/bull-or-bear-vote-in-our-poll.html Total Votes: 528 votes 1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish 35.79% 189 votes Bearish 27.84% 147 votes Neutral 36.36% 192 votes