piezoe, i agree with you. i will be bailing out of my shorts as soon as monday. we should get a much better opportunity to short some time down the road.
Pretty sad when the only reason the mkt's rising is because well its going up. As others stated this is a 10 -20 year japan type situation. I follow the put to call ratio and overall its been realively low for weeks. Actually the media is very bullish now and has been for weeks. But i'm a trader and the trend is up till further notice
there is nothing strange or sad about it: market continue up because they started going up, and continue down because they started a moved down. That is the reason why they overshoot.
Flat to -2%, it's going to take extremely positive earnings from TXN, IBM, AAPL, AMZN and MSFT to keep this 6 week rally going.
Oh ok. I'm just giving you a hard time. To be sure, I've been trying to get short recently for a multi-day hold, but these trades continue to morph into intra-day trades. I'm interested to see what happens this week now that Barron's has picked up (so so so late by the way) a story posted by Zero Hedge about a month ago. I emailed the story to my team 2 weeks before earnings season began. Now that Barron's "breaks" the story, I'm interested to see if they have the strength to pause this low volume mayhem. Trade what you see. The Barron's link is here (note the date -- they're so late to the party): http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124000857570530541.html The original Zero Hedge link is here (note the date): http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html IMO, [some] bloggers are doing far better investigative journalism these days than their traditional counterparts. Where is Jon Stewart when you need him?
interestingly, Carboni is bullish (short-term daytrading), and his recommendation for tomorrow is BUY THE MID TO LOW 850.00(s) LEVEL looks like he thinks that SP (ES contracts move almost in similar fashion) gonna test at least MA200 level during next week: http://tinyurl.com/c4rv5e plus, too bearish stances usually good from contrarian perspective to drop more or less significantly as it usually does in bearish market, this thing should at least test some local highs first. bearish rallies very often are pretty sharp
Luckily almost no one waits for capitulations, and most do the opposite - hang on until they capitulate. That's the benefit of trading against humans.
It's rising because news flow went more positive than people had expected, at a time when the price had declined a lot and sentiment had become very bearish. As a result most of us were either short or flat or underinvested. So now you have people wanting to buy because they see "good news" and have large cash balances, or shorts to cover. The market is not rising because it has gone up recently - there are so far no major technical squeezes or margin-call rallies, if so you would see large spikes over 1-3 day periods, rather than the more steady move we have had.
nice dump today. i should be happy because i unloaded my shorts. but then i was stupid enough to cling to OPG longs which had no intention of reverting. i can't seem to learn to like being raped