false inflation myths that are false

There are some things that everybody seems to think are so that just bother me, such as:

Myths:
a) inflation is inevitable. False. Weimar and the 1970s were a vast exception. You only go off the gold standard once. The British consol hovered around 2-4% from the death of Napoleon to WWI. Low interest rates and inflation are the norm. Would not be a surprise if inflation did not return during our lifetimes.

http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archives/2011/041711_files/consols.jpg

b) gold goes up with inflation. Again, there is no evidence for this. Gold has been up for 11 straight years, not a trace of inflation. That's data. Myth, busted.

c) inflation is caused by the printing of money aka inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon. Hmmm, Japanese have been printing money forever. True it's mostly sterilized, but they've still spent a ton of money and lowered rates to virtually zero. Lot of good it's done them. If inflation were a monetary phenomenon, Japan and the Bernank would have solved the deflation a long time ago. They haven't, needless to say. Look at what's right in front of your own face. Don't listen to the old myths.

Truth:

Deflation/inflation is a demographic and real phenomenon, not a monetary phenomenon. Inflation is caused by too many young people forming households, not saving, and chasing too few goods. That was the 1970s in the US and the 1960s in Japan. Old people don't cause inflation because the aged and infirm never spend money. Again, see Japan. See the US. See the global deflation all around us as the world greys.

This paper shows that in Japan and the US, "inflation is firstly a demographic phenomneon." p 13 has the goods.

http://www.insead.edu/facultyresearch/research/doc.cfm?did=47411

Remember that ontology always precedes logic, no matter what the idealists would have you believe.

 

Truth: you really don't know which way it'll go

 

Find one prediction in what I said. Please try to contribute when you post.

 

truth is you never know especially about how long our lifetimes will be

 

I can ballpark it pretty good, though. Under three figures.

By the way, I always get annoyed by the people who think they've said something by insisting "but you don't KNOW." No kidding.

The fribbling fops of fallibility is the best I could come up with.

 

you started it by claiming you didn't make a prediction and then challenging someone to find one you made and then being rude to another poster for no reason other than you are easily annoyed.

I merely found the prediction and repeated his words.

 

Oldtime are you going to kick me off my own thread again? That was funny. Sort of like you charging me with irritability. Shouldn't you be trading the latest pips in the USD/EUR?

 

your concluding were gonna experience deflation because of demographic changes that is what i read.

if you want to sit across a poker table with bernanke and bet against him great i'll sit back and watch

your looking at this from the "economics" " empirical view" there's more to the whole question your trying to answer

 

We're already experiencing deflation, or at least something very close. Not a prediction.

 

I tend to agree that inflation/deflation is based in demographics first and foremost.

I also agree that we are battling deflationary forces right now and we're far from having to worry about inflation at this point.

I know that last part is completely against conventional wisdom. EVERYONE is predicting inflation right now.