Falling Knives

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Spectre2007, Feb 27, 2007.

  1. Given the volatility expansion the SP500 has another 50 points downward action from past metrics. Puts it at 1364 on the SPooz.

    Bond market touched the 4.4% handle in yield as expected.

    Yen was called back drop more then 200 pips. Its target is 116.60.

    Nikkei's target is 17500. Be cautious in trying to step infront of this train. The sp500 didn't breach its old highs, and given this type of trading it could easily print a double top like pattern. Given the state of the economic cycle, we could easily see 1250 on the SP500. The volatility expansion would have only boded well if the spooz broke its previous highs and then collapsed.

    Given the trading patterns of some of the larger traders, there are some who have walked away today with more then 100 million dollars in profit.
  2. by the way, 'the market stop-loss' was hit today. It points to a turn in the larger trend. Macro cycles will shift today so study your charts, today will be a inflection point in different markets.
  3. We've been talking about the "correction" being wound as tight as coiled up rattlesnake, and then, when it happens, so many seemed shocked....overall a pretty tame move - with some solid reasons, obviously. VIX up 40% so, as I've said many times "be careful what you wish for" - overall, our guys did great - with only a handful with any problems out of several hundred (thank goodness for market neutral strategies).

  4. any up move will be sold into, so dont be suckered into going against the momo. you will see a lot of false starts and quick reversals.
  5. if your a professional trader/day trader it should have been very good day. And if your a novice, you might have been trying to step infront of this train.

    its just a evolution of thought patterns in regards to the markets. Everyone has to go through the same lessons, and some learn from it and some keep repeating the same mistakes.

    glad to see your boys did well Don, and it should be expected of them to walk away with a sizeable amount today.
  6. menelaus


    i usually trade ema/sma waves, so tomorrow, will look to catch awave:futures+options.=gamma.
    Oh yeah, some sort of Idiot Wave or other phantasm could work.