Failure to understand risk/reward and why you're losing as a trader.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Laissez Faire, Jan 9, 2025.

  1. taowave

    taowave

    Lol!!!!!

    200,000?????

    Lol 2x!!!!!!



     
    #241     Jan 13, 2025
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  2. Hello taowave,

    lol, what is so funny?

    That is the truth man.

    You need bare minimum about $200K to run trading systems in the markets.

    You can not play ass around with trading systems. You need big money.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2025
    #242     Jan 13, 2025
  3. I respectfully disagree, sir. The one trading system that came from a year's worth of playing around in Tradestation, years ago, is almost exactly like the style of swing trading entries / exits I settled on for freestyle click trading. Only difference is a little more pattern recognition and limited to super stocks that already doubled in the last 12 months. You could run this kind of strat with $5k capital, now that commissoins are zero. But it only returns 30-100% a year, nowhere enough for Elite Traderz like you. :)

    I'm barely a swing trader. I usually hold overnight to a couple days. I'd be driving a John Deere articulated 8 wheeler by now if I could hang on for a few months when things are going well. The strat mentioned above would just re-enter after the trailing stop took profits, if the buy signal was still flashing. Position size was maximum overnight margin at all times (since it was in sim)
     
    #243     Jan 13, 2025
  4. Hello Wide Tailz,

    Run your trading system and get paid.
     
    #244     Jan 13, 2025
  5. volpri

    volpri

    Ok the two videos I mentioned above in my post#238 are posted in my journal so go there and clik the links and they will take you to the videos on youtube. I am doing it this way to keep from cluttering up this thread.

    I used a fixed SL and PT with a 2:1 reward to risk as was shown those two videos that Laissez Faire posted in his post #1. Unfortunately, it didn't work out too good for me but that could be because of the way I scalp?? I have a difficult time scalping with a set SL and set PT even though I know mathematically it is sound.

    I also posted a video using a dynamic SL and PT that I move around and that work out a lot better for me. I captured around 81.50 points in around 20 minutes of trading. 10 trades and all winners.

    I took 10 trades in each case and both were done on 30 second charts of the MNQ as I didn't have much time to trade so I dialed down to a 30 second chart to execute the trades on.

    If you wish to watch these two very short videos to compare them Then here is the link to my journal.

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/6077831/
     
    #245     Jan 14, 2025
    NoahA likes this.
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    You are a scalper. 2:1 fixed PT/SL won't work.

    It would work if you stop scalping, swing and hunt for BO, let profits run like @Laissez Faire's approach.

    Good post sir. It validates and clarifies my thinking and understanding of the various approaches in trading.
     
    #246     Jan 14, 2025
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    Interesting.
     
    #247     Jan 14, 2025
  8. volpri

    volpri

    I am glad that LF discovered what works for him. We are all different and it is imperative to use a method that we are comfortable with. I am comfortable scalping and using HIGH WIN RATE, GRABBING PROFITS, SMALL PROFITS OVER AND OVER.

    LF is comfortable and happy swing trading although I am not sure of his definition of swing trading. I see intraday swing trading as being substantial moves with at least 2 legs and a minimum 10 bars. On a 5 min chart that may only happen 1 to 4 times during the entire session.

    I would take issue with some things in LF OP.

    1) I don't think B. Is better or superior than A. They both can work just fine. I can't get B to work well for me.

    2) I don't think B is faster than A. In my video 81.50 points were pulled out of MNQ in less than 20 minutes. And neither does swing trading necessarily imply less screen time. If I were just swing trading might would have to spend hours in a session watching waiting for that BO to occur that MIGHT would ensure that a tight SL would work and a 10:1 or 20:1 R:R would be forthcoming. And to be honest there is no such guarantee.

    3) I don't think we as traders of any methodology can demand the market subscribe to our exact mathematical certainties. It is going to do whatever it is going to do regardless of what math I put on it in terms of R:R. Yes having a reward at least twice as big as a loss or even more than twice can establish a certain level of psychological security in the "mind" of the trader but more often than not in the field of play the market has no inclination to conform to a trader's expectations as it is simply going to go where it is going to go. It is up to me as a trader to extract profits from that movement. Math cannot and will not ensure I am successful at doing that. In theory yes math can be applied. In the arena where things hop well desired outcomes are not so certain. We are navigating in a fog whether we are investing, swing trading, or scalping. It has always been that way and it always will be that way. AI cannot solve that for us.

    The best I can do is look at tendencies, probabilities. possibilities, and inertia as starters. And develop strategic and tactical methodologies that will help me extract profits from a dynamic, live, continually moving sea of movement. In my experience trying to "box" the market in with math or my expectancy is a dead end alley.

    Therefore, I take or grab "whatever" the market renders me, which "whatever" R:R I see that it gives me experientially and whenever I can "see" both working out for a profit.

    IMO scalping does a better job for myself in accomplishing this than swing trading. I just try to develop techniques that give me quick profits over and over (embracing the possibility of FOT ) with a high win rate.

    I still maintain that high win rate and FOT are the prime principles, if not the most important, metrics for a scalper. R:R is secondary. That said I do believe I have to be ready to dump a trade gone bad and I have to have someway to get back the loss I suffered from that bad trade and get it back quickly. If I keep getting whipsawed attempting to get back a loss (and it can happen but rarely) then it is time to close up the laptop go fishing, gardening, shopping or whatever. There are days when one's mind is simply not in sync with the PA of the market and we as traders just don't see or have a hard time accepting what is happening.

    I have to say it does puzzle me why scalping is dissed so often on trading forums and math is so pushed to the forefront and backtesting becomes such a security blanket (if I may say so). Investing and swing trading are upheld in high regard and scalping is simply dabbling with noise and pure luck. The market offers us a sea of POSSIBILITIES and all are legitimate if an investor or trader can make them work for themselves.

    I think I have shown enough of live market PA employing concepts of scalping to show that it can work and it is not just luck or noise but that there are some pretty sound guiding principle for doing. At least in my journal I believe I am showing how I like to scalp but I am not telling or advising anyone to do things like I do. It is a journal for your entertainment and nothing else. It is just teaching how I like to scalp. It is not telling anyone to scalp this way.

    Here us a good disclaimer and please apply it to my journal as you read it or watch any of my videos:

    "We all know or should know that real or simulated performances are no guarantee of future performances and every investor, trader, scalper should and needs to know that especially in futures or margin trading you can lose ALL your money and more. Nothing is guaranteed nor can it ever be guaranteed. There is no such thing as 100% sure fire methods or profits. Period. And you better hold onto your billfold if anyone promises such a thing."

    I am sincerely glad LF has discovered what works for him in satisfying ways. That is what it is all about! We have to be happy and not miserable. I am not the sharpest tool in the tool box and it has taken me years and years of study and live testing for me to formulate a view of the markets and develop ways to trade it in ways that fit me. I care little about backtesting..sharp ratios...R:R or any of the other of the myriad of mathematical formulas we as traders want to see. I care only about what the market does and how can I extract profits from it. I care only about developing and using techniques whether on a SIM or real money account that work for me. I can only prove this to myself by forward testing them on a live SIM or live real money account. I can use static charts in hindsight to highlight things or show trades and setups but it is only live when I can demonstrate them to myself or show others how I like to scalp.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2025
    #248     Jan 14, 2025
    ironchef likes this.
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    The beauty is everything works and everything won't work. The devil is in the details.

    I personally owe both you and @Laissez Faire a big favor. Through both your generous counsels, I am able to develop a day trading system that I now believe can be profitable.

    In my 2023 6 months sim I used a system similar to what @Laissez Faire taught, and in my 2024 6 m sim, used @volpri's approach. Both overall profitable with @Laissez Faire 5x better, but win rate <40% and bigger DD. It was too stressful for me even in sim.

    Today, I finished my 17 days of live trades, winning days vs losing days: 16:1. Win rate: 67%. Mostly scalped so profit is "modest" but that is OK. :D
     
    #249     Jan 14, 2025
    birdman, Picaso and NoahA like this.
  10. volpri

    volpri

    Well I would certainly stick with what renders you the best profit you can get and be happy and not miserable. Although it might be hard to be miserable with 5x more profit! LOL
     
    #250     Jan 14, 2025
    Picaso likes this.