Failure to understand risk/reward and why you're losing as a trader.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Laissez Faire, Jan 9, 2025.

  1. tomkat22

    tomkat22

    My only problem with your Plan B theory/hypothesis is that it reeks of making "demands" of the market. Every time I have "demanded" the market do a certain thing it usually gives me the double bird,tells me to go fuck myself then takes a bunch of my money.
     
    #11     Jan 9, 2025
    volpri likes this.
  2. He's right dudes, unless you have a reaper's mind and slash your position when it's acting up, you will get WRECKED!
     
    #12     Jan 9, 2025
    HawaiianIceberg and beginner66 like this.
  3. I may not be able to formulate myself as succinctly as some others, but the gist of my post is that I'm sure many don't understand where they're at in the R/R quadrant and as such don't even understand why they or their system lose. They only focus on the method (which of course could be horrible) - when in truth some minor adjustments could make them at least moderately profitable.

    a. If you're risking 5 points to gain 2 points, you're not going to get lucky and get rich by some kind of miracle long term. And most likely your win rate ain't 90 %. We've seen people here with month long winning streaks who end up losing it all on a big down day or two.

    b. If you're risking 5 points to gain 10 points, but routinely move your stop to breakeven or cut your winners short at 5 points "to make a green day", you're not going to make it, either.

    Most people are best off forgetting about trading and certainly day trading, but if you're still interested, I think it's easier to focus on an approach where you can be wrong and still make money. Swing trading seems like the best choice as your risk/reward by default is better.

    Even if you compare a scalper and an intraday swing trader, the initial risk will often be the same. Yet, the scalper will securely cut his profits short instead of maximizing his gains.
     
    #13     Jan 9, 2025
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    I know I am on thin ice, against conventional wisdom, but in life, I always took paths less travelled:

    A 1:10 system is not better than a 1:1.

    In fact a reward risk of < 1:1 could be better for scalping, higher win, easier on the stomach. :D
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2025
    #14     Jan 9, 2025
    birdman and Picaso like this.
  5. volpri

    volpri

    81 5m bars in ES. Money can be made on most any bar scalping. FOT is how money is made scalping.
     
    #15     Jan 9, 2025
    birdman and Picaso like this.
  6. I know it's fasionable to dis Volpri's method but it's similar to a young Jesse Livermore's price action scalping in the bucket shops (take profits and run, before they run you out of the office). These dayz it's very possible with streaming platforms.

    I imagine the older Livermore was a lot like Ed Seykota, who (based on his veiled clues in his various interviewz) bought explosive breakouts in commodities that were already trending up and had a tendency to keep going after beginning the move. I do not think he optimized his system to run on every commodity, like the classic CTA's who used Trading Recipes backtester, in the glorious 80's.

    But it's all money, and for those about to book profits, I salute you!
     
    #16     Jan 9, 2025
    birdman and ironchef like this.
  7. #17     Jan 9, 2025
    MACD likes this.
  8. Coin Flip

    Coin Flip

    You are disingenuous.

    You know exactly what he means, there is a trade-off between risk reward and win rate such that a risk reward of 1:10 is not necessarily better than 1:1.
     
    #18     Jan 9, 2025
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Leave the poor dude alone. He's like those attention whores who like to argue for argument's sake.
     
    #19     Jan 9, 2025
    Drawdown Addict likes this.
  10. These day traders defend each other when one is in trouble. They behave like gypsies.

    I want to be part of that community. Maybe I should start scalping the Nasdaq.
     
    #20     Jan 9, 2025
    taowave likes this.