failure rate ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by SethArb, Jan 27, 2010.

  1. we all know the usual talk of

    "80 / 90 / 99"

    small traders / retail

    fail at any attempt to trade actively and compete
    against the "whales / CTAs / mutual funds / top tier prop firm

    star traders ...

    my premise is this

    if you took the richest brightest gurus / star traders

    away from their "contacts" / algo BOTS / HF trading / spoofing

    nonsense / incentive fees / bonus pools / trading against customers (?)

    and matched them up against their own kind but with only a small stake and told them
    they could not contact "their contacts"
    but only use their "knowledge base" as a human being
    in which to make their trading decisions day in and day out

    how many of those "names" would fail to make a living"
    as opposed to their "legendary skills"

    of course some would still be the best but ....

  2. Life and trading aint "fair" and you're probably pissed off about the GS Bonus Pool. :cool:
  3. I am sure a lot would fail. Particularly the quant traders. :p
  4. So, after a trader has figured his sh*t out...after he did his work by making contacts, writing "bots", creating algorithms, etc...after he has determined his edge in the market and figured out a way to capitalize on it...

    What you're asking is, "Let's take all that away, give him Ninja Trader and a 5 minute chart with RSI and MACD on it, and see if he can trade better than I can."

    Am I correct?

    What's the point? Why don't you try and become the guy from whom you propose to take everything?
  5. what would change for your trading if all this happened?
  6. Trading is a zero sum game, negative sum if you don't consider fees/commissions to be a player in the game. What this means is that if you took ANY group of people, no matter how skilled, and had them play against each other the net result would be they would lose. In reality, since the best players don't like to lose, the game would simply dry up. In order to make a game, you have to have suckers.

    It's just like high stakes poker - put the 8 best poker players in the world around a table, and you'll get a game of Chinese poker (which is essentially random) and a lot of stupid prop bets. Basically, they'll just fuck around waiting for someone worth playing to come along - you won't get an actual poker game. But put six top players, a drug dealer and a guy who owns a bunch of fried twinkie stands at the table, and you'll get a game of whatever those two want to play for as much as they're willing to play for.
  7. Buzzed


    Not until the bubble pops. Just like a ponzi scheme, as long as more people are willing to buy at higher prices, the sum of the game will continue to go up.