A lot of calendar spreads, energy futures especially because of less seasonality than some commodities such as grains, seem to trade in a range for some time(ie CL Sept-Dec traded +/- ~$1.00 for the last year). A potential trade could be to fade the current trend in this example as it is at, or outside, the historical range. Though this looks smart from a technical point of view, fundamental factors are more influential on the forward curve now that the contracts are moving toward delivery. Is it unwise to fade a trend like this in the last month or two before expiration without a fundamental reason to beieve that the spread will narrow? Of course, some would say to never trade on a technical without also having fundamental backing.