1. Traders with a plan. 2. The plan must include market sentiment. 3. Market sentiment must be known all the time. 4. A routine must be followed all the time to determine market sentiment. 5. The routine must include the means to know when market sentiment is changing on three fractals: the traded fractal, the fractal faster than the traded fractal; and the fractal slower than the traded fractal.* 6. Sentiment can only change after point 3 of a trending fractal. 7. Sentiment is changing on any fractal when continuation is coming to an end and fractal trend overlap is beginning (Change replaces continuation at the beginning of overlap). 8. Continuation comes to an end when additional volume cannot drive price further in the trend direction. 9 Overlap begins when point 1 of the next trend is observed as non dominant volume (in terms of prior trend, appears). 10. At this time the wall on the DOM is not breached and price reverses off the wall. At these closely linked points in time, profit segments are taken and the new profit segment position is established. The market tool for this is the reversal trade. *there are many leading indicators of the critical window in time for reversing. P and V ar the direct indicators of sentiment change where sentiment defines the correct side of the market. Immature markets do not provide real time P and V. Seven leading indicators of trades are worth considering: 1. cases of volume 2. Smart money. 3. First derivatives and second derivatives 4. Cases of price. 5. Cases of two line indicators 6. All suppression indicators 7. The order of events in items 1 through 6 above. The primary job of designing a trading plan is to have all data sets in a form of "go/no go" rather than as quan or qual relative measures. The reason is simple. The differentiated mind works est when no calibration is involved. One simple step in that direction is to not allow scaling on any display to vary from a set default. A second step is to always have the foring data the same place (and not on the right edge) on the display. The envelope of all considerations HAS to extend into the future and price, then fills the envelopes as the future moves into the present from right to left. Go nogo can be done in either of two instantly observable manners: boundaries and/or lites. So the questions is, why can't gifropan determine how to use opposites to determine how to convert ANY trade that opposes sentiment of the market to a trade that is on the correct side of the market? The above comment is made by a person who does not use stops but, instead, uses a plan to continually extrct the offer of the market all based on go nogo complete data sets continually retrieved by doing a four part routine that includes: monitoring, analysis, decision making and taking timely action to have closer before another cycle of the routine. The most common timely action is hold to let more profits accumulate.
Refer to "Dr Hu" document tables entitled:Table of Decisions and Actions and Application of Capital Table so you have a context for your humor. People do well in proportion to their objective knowledge of their partnership with the markets and their responsibilities. Discovering incompleteness in knowledg and varients from the information the market supplies is an important ongoing activity. When people can afford to help the environment with problem solving money and contributions of time, they got to that place by purposeful learning for my notes they took and the work they did to better their trading. Objective knowledge and skills sets are not threatening to anyone.
Well, the risk/reward ratio some of you are assuming was not as favorable as you would suspect. However, doing the opposite does not imply the need for using the same risk/reward ratio in reverse partly because many of my trades did not even come close to my profit target. This means I could possibly have a smaller stop then my profit target was and still possibly come out on top. (As a matter of fact, I think I might adjust the risk/reward ratio to be more favorable which would greatly tilt the odds in my favor.) As a matter of fact, it happened plenty of times that I ended up buying near the top or shorting near the bottom of a move. So, selecting an opposite position at these entry points wouldn't be a bad idea.
LOL, this reminds me of a message I read on a stickam chat room once. Someone said something along the lines of: "I will speak in an educational tone and you will not be able to comprehend my language.". Haha, I laughed real hard at that. For some unknown reason, the female host of the chat got real ticked off and said people on stickam are all idiots and logged off closing the chat in the process.
Poor old Jack believes he was hired by the UN and several countries to investigate claims of global warming at Antarctica as he told us in this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=161373&perpage=6&pagenumber=14 Stop in the gift shop on your way out and buy the limited edition commemorative Jack Hershey action figure.. limit one per customer <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2428031>
Seriously dude WTF Asas asaw tghr sesfgg sasefef Comprehende ? BTW I googled your book so I could buy all the copies and no more Jack O' wacko are made but it doesnt exist -can you link it with availability ?? Seriously, my good deed for the year to prevent getting that book into any kids hands
In some ways I think the difficulty of using a trend following strategy during a trend may depend on the size of the stops and profit targets that you use. However, what I've seen in the last decline of the EUR/JPY is that the narrow range retracements would have resulted in you getting stopped out multiple times when trying to get back in to enjoy the ride down again. If you used very large stops, this might not only prevent you from getting a better entry point (in other words, if you got stopped out with a smaller stop and shorted again at a higher price, you'd get a more favorable price), but if you wanted a favorable risk/reward ratio with very large stops, your profit targets would be so large they'd be sometimes untainable. Or, at least they'd cost you a lot of time in waiting (which would cause you to also miss out on trading a lot of fluctuations). So, by fading the trend following strategy, I'd end up with a contrarian strategy. I was convinced for 18 months that I wanted to develop a trend following strategy so I could get the favorable risk/reward ratio that goes with that. However, if you can capture one large gain here and there only to lose it after getting whipsawed countless times afterwards by intermittent trading ranges, then I think now I'd rather go for the consistent small profits interrupted briefly by somewhat larger losses. If this contrarian strategy wouldn't work, it would be if the markets would start doing something it would likely never do, and that is to go in a straight line up and down for long periods of time which would make trading with moving averages way too easy. Then every trend follower in the world would jump in that market which would likely just cause trading ranges to emerge.