You are exactly right do not do those dumb things. You do NOT know how to determine market SENTIMENT. Sentiment means "WHICH WAY THE MARKET IS GOING AND LEANING. Making money in markets means "BEING ON THE CORRECT SIDE OF THE MARKET. Here is a slowly excutable solution to your problems. Keep a line drawn to the right of price. Always be in the market according to the slope of that line. +is long; - is short. Notice when you need to draw a new line or when you CAN draw a new line. There you see two lines of opposite slopes. You trade is in the "old" slope. End the trade and go into the sign of the new slope before the two lines cross in time. Pretend you are redneck and have three charts running all the time. Will all the charts have price to the right of the lines drawn on the charts. NAW.... that is not going to be true most of the time. Which chart is the correct chart? and which chart makes the most money? and which chart has the most trades? How many times can you keep in a trade where the line is changing sides and still make money? This is not a trick question. Lets play before and after the parallelogram. Can you take a trade before you can draw a parallelogram that contains its price? Can you take a fade before you can draw the parallelogram? Why is waiting to take a trade after drawing the parallelogram giving you such small amounts of time in the market before you have to get out to not get stopped out? Why is the best entry just when the price can no longer make it to the other side of the parallelogram? Why is this trade the opposite of the sign of the slope of the parallelogram? To answer all these questions, what variable of the market do you use? These questions were figured out by a group of Presidents. To celebrate this they close the markets on next Monday. Extra credit: What is the name of the guy who stole the HF codes from GS that he designed before he left? Does transporting stolen property include internet transportation?
So Jack why do you still live off your partner? Why do you need to live out of her house if you are successful? How does she feel about subsidizing your career? Do you get an allowance? Why do you have none of the trappings of success? After 50 years why can't you show a track record, or even a single trade? In short why do you waste your declining years trying to be someone and something you clearly are not?
Attached is a chart with two market variables. In the prior post lines were darwn to form parallelograms. How close is the trough volume to the place where the lines crossed in the prior learning experience? BEFORE? AROUND? AFTER? Does the peaking volume occur BEFORE you not longer make progress to the other side of the parallelogram? AFTER? AROUND that time? How many times the ATR do these trades represent for just the afternoon of this trading day? Is the number under 6? 5? 4? 3? Less than you make in a day? More?
so based on your review of the Q and A what happens on the next bars after tha last one shown on the prior chart? How do you know? and what principle is being applied?
each of the five parallelograms has three moves in it. the order of events in each parallelogram is the same with respect to P and V and the relationship of P and V taken together. What are all of those yellow boxes? What if you make each yellow box into one bar? how do all these synthetic bars go relative to one another in a parallelogram? Why does the pattern always complete on each parallelogram? How do sub patterns look on the three moves in each parallelogram? What contemporary of mine (think late 50' and early 60"s, traded a shape similar to a parallelogram. Did his shape have price coming into and going out of the same way the parallel of grams do?
Jack Hershey, thanks for reminding me of trendlines. Well, I just looked at a bunch of SSO (S&P 500) screenshots and EUR/JPY screenshots. It looks like a mixed bag as to how well it would work. But, I've seen lots of situations where it could have worked. One example is when you see the S&P 500 going down a little in the morning after the open which would give you a sell signal with the method I developed. However, this is followed by a steep uptrend. So, coincidence or not, and whether it's only in a demo account or not, I feel like trying this out for a while.
Very very good for you. This will put the pieces together for you. Here is the same chart as the last one but using indicator signals (lites on the panes) for the order of events.
Not bad Jack but not Nonlinear Mathematics either. http://markbrown.com/client_content/projects/research/trading_images/es4.png Mark Brown
I'm sure everyone sees the approximately 32 trades this chart generated. Good trading to you too. For SCT traders this chart mimics point to point sub trading if Stat derived first derivatives are used. But it may give up bar volatility and IBGS's. (The data sampling is too meager) If a person is in the advanced beginner stage (before beginner internals going into intermediate) and trading BBT's (FTT to FTT) use the equivalent of a Ray signal on the MACD for reversals. (Remember rays are extreme values and not sub oriented values (near the neutral axis)). It looks like about 4 to 7 trades at this beginner level on Mark's chart. Loses are engendered when within the ranges such as those on the S/S charts. So taping out signals in a band along the axis is required (this means sidelining and only entering when the signal emerges from the neutral band). A CW labelled "chop day" where the signal is all on one side of the indicator would be a good example (none have ever been posted so far) of a whole day not to trade using this indicator.