I'm going out on a limb here and drawing on a tenuous example. Remember how post 9/11, the market rocketed after rate cuts, and with each new cut, the market rallied less until you had to try and sell any pop on rate cuts? Well, we had an incredible 8 point rally in the bonds the other day, and a few days later we had a sharp 3 point rally. Amazingly enough, on the 24th when the Fed said it was in the market buying, the TNote ended lower. Who would have imagined this possible last year? I'm starting to get bearish because it seems that the Fed's ability to sustain lower yield levels is weakening. In the past the spikes always led the way but given that the spike higher was orchestrated, I'm not going to take this as a solid indicator. Now I don't hold overnights -it's not my trading style, but in theory I will be looking to short any sharp rallies, with a tight stop of course.
I couldn't resist buying this dip on the 30 year today. Wait for some equity weakness and an announcement that the Fed will increase its buying.