1997 many people used email but couldn't even grasp the huge potential that lay ahead for email usuage. Same for google in 2000. Facebook's potential is staggering. They will easily gain 30% of the social networking market share.
The most valuable asset they have is all the data mined and behavioral patterns of its users. Basically, it is the ultimate social honeypot. The company itself is worth practically zero. Do they have some super secret algorithm like Google? Nope. And there is zero barrier to entry. If I were an investor in these types of companies I would want to know what kind of information they log. The more they log and pierce user's privacies, the higher I would value these types of firms.
Facebook has already strayed...it will get lost in the change like everything else. Maybe it will do well before it loses traction, but the viral predictability of teenage habits has yet to be prophesized from what I've seen. Teenagers and kids will do what they want and if there is something that works better for their ever-changing needs then they'll use it without a care. stock_turder doesn't know what he's talking about usual...just because he sees the kids in the mall who shop at the Foot Locker where he works he thinks it's all the rage of course.
I will short every share available of facebook. I'll average down until I have nothing left. Facebook is nothing special at all. Anyone with decent comp sci skills could create another facebook. Google on the other hand has an actual business. So does yahoo. You are crazy to compare facebook to the sites you mentioned.
I completely agree with you.. Facebook is nothing in comparison to Google and Y!.. Facebook is a trend follower not a trend setter like Google and Y!. People are fools to believe otherwise.
google or yahoo dissappears and business and users loses a major tool/commercial portal. Facebook dissappears and all you get is some whining students and teenagers, I think thats enough to differentiate them.