It will still imply a 3 dollar 11 percent move tomorrow.. the jump down was unexpected.. it wasn't priced in
yeah.. well i kind of was thinking the same thing.. was all the pessimism just priced into the stock? whats the most unexpected thing that could happen? to me a big beat.. seems impossible with Znga as a huge part of its earnings and missing by so much.. Znga is a total pump and dump it seems like.. maybe they factored that in when projecting earnings/guidance from last quarter.. maybe not..
I own a FB straddle. Bought it two days ago. My plan was to sell it pre-earnings. Really did not anticipate Znga making such an impact. In any event, I still expect the straddle to trade higher. I gained some $$$ yesterday, but I don't know what impact Znga will have on volatility. My opinion is it makes things even more uncertain.
it amused me. the word " was not priced in" "was unexpected" the IV really means something, it means nothing! if people can price in, I think no one should do trading, since there is no business. I hold 100lot put ZNGA at 0.13. just wondering and worrying how my QQQ 62 call at 0.8 work out, think about GDP release, the funny things this morning is going up becuase of some comments from Euro FED. if I try to price in, expect, just does not work. that is why JPM lost billions in derivate trading, those guys are pricng in and pricing in, small guys like me, just laugh to bank, oh ya, I did not expect, ...I did not price in
Strong form efficient market theory... its stupid.... but I was justsaying the znga thing wasn't why the options were priced that way and they will be priced that way today
have you simulated what happens to your straddle if it just gots back up to thirty after earnings ? are you not completely toast if that happens?
My plan is to sell the straddle before earnings announcement. The announcement is after hours. I am trying to take advantage of increase in volatility before the event. I expect speculators to drive up the price of the options.
i swear that is the best way to play earnings.. theres nothing more predictable then the inflation and implosion of vol before and after.. i've bought options for bidu a week before earnings and did very well.. I planned on taking it off the table but didn't and the vol collapse put me right back where i started..
this is where i'm at for 1:Ã_BuyÃ_1Ã_FBÃ_OPTÃ_AUGÃ_03Ã_'12Ã_24Ã_CallÃ_(100)Ã_ Ã_Ã_Ã_Ã_2:Ã_SellÃ_2Ã_FBÃ_OPTÃ_AUGÃ_03Ã_'12Ã_27Ã_CallÃ_(100)Ã_ Ã_Ã_Ã_Ã_3:Ã_BuyÃ_1Ã_FBÃ_OPTÃ_AUGÃ_03Ã_'12Ã_30Ã_CallÃ_(100)Ã_ debit .82 cents i'm not putting much down on this .. but i am going to do a calender as well i'm looking at
The FB straddle went down in price today. However, I still ended up with a gain (albeit very slight). The AMZN straddle that I bought yesterday made me more money. I am out of both the straddles now. Next week, I am looking at LNKD. They report earnings on August 2. I bought LNKD 105/105 straddle a few days ago, and sold it today for some gain. I am thinking the ZNGA nightmare had something to do with the VOL gain. A few minutes ago I bought LNKD AUG 100/100 straddle for 12.4. I specifically remember LNKD straddle going above $16 prior to LNKD's earnings in May. The stock went up only 7% after earnings announcement. Perhaps that's the reason why LNKD straddle is trading at only 12.4. In any event, straddle price of 12.4 is pretty undervalued. I recommend buying LNKD straddle and selling it before earnings. I really don't understand why the marketmakers would price the LNKD straddle so low. After what happened to ZNGA, it needs to be priced higher.