Enough of the pissing contest about trading strategies. Gold's rise isn't just a trade like any other, its a symptom of something else, something bigger: We're having a fucking currency meltdown. Get your mind around it now, or wait to see the effects unfold.
A trade is a trade is a trade. Nothing else. Gold is no different than Rapeseed or Natural Gas to me.
Then you must believe we are in a normal business cycle. It's not normal. This is historic, stuff to tell the grandkids about.
Last time I believed in something must have been the tooth fairy. How are those guys doing who believed in Dow 40,000 in 1999? Or those who bet the house on peak oil and the big inflation scare of 2008? (Spare me the details, I know already "This time is different") Betting the farm on single outcomes without a backup plan for an adverse scenario is for gamblers, not for traders.
I am not a perma bull or perma bear. I'm a realist. But yes, I am leaning towards the side of doom these days. I have yet to see anything prove me otherwise. I'll repeat it again: it's a fucking meltdown. We live in a world where we have to somehow all believe that 2+2=25. You know why? Because 2+2=4 is too much of a painful truth to bear. You can't mess with math. Ultimately, math has to make sense. The US government is Atlas holding the financial world on its sholders. Atlas was a fictional character and he could bear that burden. The US government? I don't think so. This dollar carry trade will reverse, and then you will see the real price of gold.
This point of view rather disregards the undisputable fact of a large chunk of the retail investor base it's necessity of taking unhedged risks simply because they need to build capital. No one gets rich because of the generous dividents payed out.
Setting a generous disaster stop loss doesn't mean you can't take advantage of upside. Nobody forces you to buy/short anything without a stop loss/sell point. Faber (just like his Goldilocks economy foes) love to focus on targets ($5,000 gold, 40,000 Dow, 10,000 Nasdaq, $200 crude etc. etc.) but rarely mention price points for the adverse scenario that would invalidate their thesis.
Then you should short it. You can saywhat you want about gold bugs but at least they put their money where their mouth is.
Faber clarifies gold outlook. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=15122